St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy Statistics & Analysis

St. Louis City

Oct 11, 2026 - 23:00

6 2.09

2 0.96

xG Accuracy: 26%

Los Angeles Galaxy

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 St. Louis City St. Louis City ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 6-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13240044

Closing Odds 1.48

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result St. Louis City win · St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles Galaxy

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 3.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
St. Louis City (1X2)	62.1	65.6	-3.5
Draw (1X2)	22.7	19.4	+3.3
Los Angeles Galaxy (1X2)	15.2	14.9	+0.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 22.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.4%. The difference — about 3.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 → bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
St. Louis City (1X2)	1.45	1.48	-0.5
Draw (1X2)	5.0	5.0	+0.3
Los Angeles Galaxy (1X2)	6.5	6.5	+0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Major League Soccer
Fixture: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 62.1% · Draw 22.7% · Away 15.2%
xG (showing): St. Louis City 2.09 — Los Angeles Galaxy 0.96 (total xG ≈ 3.05)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 41.2% · Implied: 32.3% · Probability edge: +8.9 pts · Est. EV: +24.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 55.3% · No 44.7%
Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (10.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	5	7	50
2	St. Louis City	27	13	8	6	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	36
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	9	9	10	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	32
12	San Diego	27	8	8	11	32
13	Austin	27	7	10	10	31
14	Minnesota United FC	27	7	8	12	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	21

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	60	29	+31	50
2	FC Dallas	27	50	42	+8	47
3	San Jose Earthquakes	27	49	39	+10	45
4	St. Louis City	27	48	36	+12	47
5	Portland Timbers	27	48	51	-3	32
6	San Diego	27	47	47	0	32
7	Los Angeles FC	28	43	30	+13	41
8	Real Salt Lake	27	40	44	-4	32
9	Minnesota United FC	27	40	49	-9	29
10	Colorado Rapids	27	38	38	0	36
11	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	37	44	-7	36
12	Seattle Sounders	27	35	35	0	38
13	Austin	27	35	47	-12	31
14	Houston Dynamo	27	34	32	+2	44
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	32	65	-33	21

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	St. Louis City	27	18.9	9.7	+9.2	47
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	16.5	8.2	+8.3	50
3	Colorado Rapids	27	13.9	8.3	+5.6	36
4	Portland Timbers	27	20.4	16.1	+4.3	32
5	Minnesota United FC	27	19.2	14.9	+4.3	29
6	Houston Dynamo	27	13.2	12.4	+0.8	44
7	San Diego	27	16.9	16.2	+0.7	32
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	14.4	14.2	+0.2	45
9	Los Angeles FC	28	15.7	16.8	-1.1	41
10	FC Dallas	27	12.6	15.2	-2.6	47
11	Seattle Sounders	27	11.9	16.0	-4.1	38
12	Real Salt Lake	27	15.1	21.1	-6.0	32
13	Sporting Kansas City	27	11.7	19.7	-8.0	21
14	Austin	27	10.6	18.6	-8.0	31
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	12.8	23.8	-11.0	36