Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers Statistics & Analysis

Sporting Kansas City

Oct 11, 2026 - 00:30

3 1.27

3 1.70

xG Accuracy: 44%

Portland Timbers

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Portland Timbers Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13183927

Closing Odds 2.8

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Portland Timbers

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Portland Timbers (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Portland Timbers (1X2) by about 3.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sporting Kansas City (1X2)	27.2	33.5	-6.2
Draw (1X2)	26.7	23.7	+3.0
Portland Timbers (1X2)	46.0	42.8	+3.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 46.0% on Portland Timbers (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 42.8%. The difference — about 3.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 → stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Sporting Kansas City (1X2)	2.82	2.8	+0.5
Draw (1X2)	3.9	3.95	-0.1
Portland Timbers (1X2)	2.15	2.19	-0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Major League Soccer
Fixture: Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 00:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 27.2% · Draw 26.7% · Away 46.1%
xG (showing): Sporting Kansas City 1.27 — Portland Timbers 1.7 (total xG ≈ 2.97)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 43.0% · Implied: 29.3% · Probability edge: +13.7 pts · Est. EV: +41.9%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	51
2	St. Louis City	28	14	8	6	50
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	37
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	9	9	11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	32
12	San Diego	28	8	8	12	32
13	Austin	28	7	10	11	31
14	Minnesota United FC	28	7	9	12	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	22

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	61	30	+31	51
2	St. Louis City	28	54	38	+16	50
3	FC Dallas	28	52	45	+7	47
4	Portland Timbers	28	51	54	-3	33
5	San Jose Earthquakes	28	50	40	+10	46
6	San Diego	28	48	51	-3	32
7	Los Angeles FC	29	44	31	+13	42
8	Minnesota United FC	28	42	51	-9	30
9	Real Salt Lake	28	41	46	-5	32
10	Colorado Rapids	28	39	39	0	37
11	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	39	50	-11	36
12	Seattle Sounders	28	38	35	+3	41
13	Houston Dynamo	28	36	34	+2	45
14	Austin	28	36	51	-15	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	35	68	-33	22

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	St. Louis City	28	19.6	10.8	+8.8	50
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	17.4	8.8	+8.6	51
3	Colorado Rapids	28	15.9	9.8	+6.1	37
4	Minnesota United FC	28	20.7	16.9	+3.8	30
5	Portland Timbers	28	21.2	17.8	+3.4	33
6	Los Angeles FC	29	20.0	17.6	+2.4	42
7	San Diego	28	19.4	17.1	+2.3	32
8	San Jose Earthquakes	28	15.4	16.2	-0.8	46
9	Houston Dynamo	28	14.1	14.9	-0.8	45
10	Seattle Sounders	28	13.9	17.0	-3.1	41
11	FC Dallas	28	13.6	17.2	-3.6	47
12	Real Salt Lake	28	17.1	22.1	-5.0	32
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	14.9	24.5	-9.6	36
14	Sporting Kansas City	28	12.3	24.0	-11.7	22
15	Austin	28	11.2	23.0	-11.8	31