New York Red Bulls vs San Diego Statistics & Analysis

New York Red Bulls

Oct 10, 2026 - 23:30

4 1.41

1 1.78

xG Accuracy: 40%

San Diego

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 San Diego New York Red Bulls ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13254219

Closing Odds 2.4

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result New York Red Bulls win · New York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), San Diego (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on San Diego (1X2) by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
New York Red Bulls (1X2)	29.2	38.9	-9.7
Draw (1X2)	25.8	24.6	+1.2
San Diego (1X2)	45.0	36.6	+8.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 45.0% on San Diego (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 36.6%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
New York Red Bulls (1X2)	2.4	2.4
Draw (1X2)	3.8	3.8
San Diego (1X2)	2.55	2.55

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Major League Soccer
Fixture: New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.2% · Draw 25.8% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): New York Red Bulls 1.41 — San Diego 1.78 (total xG ≈ 3.19)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 38.2% · Implied: 29.4% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +29.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 64.2% · No 35.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	5	7	50
2	St. Louis City	27	13	8	6	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	36
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	9	9	10	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	32
12	San Diego	27	8	8	11	32
13	Austin	27	7	10	10	31
14	Minnesota United FC	27	7	8	12	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	21

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	60	29	+31	50
2	FC Dallas	27	50	42	+8	47
3	San Jose Earthquakes	27	49	39	+10	45
4	St. Louis City	27	48	36	+12	47
5	Portland Timbers	27	48	51	-3	32
6	San Diego	27	47	47	0	32
7	Los Angeles FC	28	43	30	+13	41
8	Real Salt Lake	27	40	44	-4	32
9	Minnesota United FC	27	40	49	-9	29
10	Colorado Rapids	27	38	38	0	36
11	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	37	44	-7	36
12	Seattle Sounders	27	35	35	0	38
13	Austin	27	35	47	-12	31
14	Houston Dynamo	27	34	32	+2	44
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	32	65	-33	21

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	16.5	8.2	+8.3	50
2	St. Louis City	27	16.2	8.0	+8.2	47
3	Colorado Rapids	27	13.9	8.3	+5.6	36
4	Portland Timbers	27	20.4	16.1	+4.3	32
5	Minnesota United FC	27	19.0	15.0	+4.0	29
6	San Diego	27	16.0	14.1	+1.9	32
7	Houston Dynamo	27	13.3	12.3	+1.0	44
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	14.4	14.2	+0.2	45
9	Los Angeles FC	28	15.7	16.8	-1.1	41
10	FC Dallas	27	11.3	12.7	-1.4	47
11	Seattle Sounders	27	10.9	15.8	-4.9	38
12	Real Salt Lake	27	14.4	19.9	-5.5	32
13	Sporting Kansas City	27	11.7	19.7	-8.0	21
14	Austin	27	10.6	18.6	-8.0	31
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	11.2	21.1	-9.9	36