San Diego vs Philadelphia Union Statistics & Analysis

San Diego

Sep 14, 2026 - 01:00

0 1.53

5 1.59

xG Accuracy: 26%

Philadelphia Union

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7570951

Closing Odds 2.39

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Philadelphia Union win · San Diego 0–5 Philadelphia Union

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices San Diego (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 3.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
San Diego (1X2)	35.5	34.2	+1.3
Draw (1X2)	26.5	25.4	+1.1
Philadelphia Union (1X2)	38.0	40.5	-2.4
Over 2.5 goals	60.3	64.0	-3.7
Under 2.5 goals	39.7	36.0	+3.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.7% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.0%. The difference — about 3.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
San Diego (1X2)	2.83	2.83
Draw (1X2)	3.81	3.81
Philadelphia Union (1X2)	2.39	2.39
Over 2.5 goals	1.5	1.5
Under 2.5 goals	2.67	2.67

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Major League Soccer
Fixture: San Diego vs Philadelphia Union
Kickoff: 2026-09-14 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.5% · Draw 26.5% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): San Diego 1.53 — Philadelphia Union 1.59 (total xG ≈ 3.12)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 39.7% · Implied: 35.2% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +11.2%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	44
3	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	8	9	10	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	32
10	Seattle Sounders	25	8	8	9	32
11	San Diego	26	8	7	11	31
12	Austin	26	7	9	10	30
13	Real Salt Lake	26	8	5	13	29
14	Minnesota United FC	26	7	8	11	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	18

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	56	23	+33	49
2	FC Dallas	26	49	42	+7	44
3	Portland Timbers	26	47	48	-1	32
4	San Jose Earthquakes	26	46	38	+8	42
5	St. Louis City	26	45	36	+9	44
6	San Diego	26	44	44	0	31
7	Los Angeles FC	27	43	29	+14	41
8	Minnesota United FC	26	39	46	-7	29
9	Real Salt Lake	26	37	44	-7	29
10	Colorado Rapids	26	36	35	+1	36
11	Houston Dynamo	26	34	30	+4	44
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	34	42	-8	33
13	Austin	26	32	44	-12	30
14	Seattle Sounders	25	30	33	-3	32
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	29	63	-34	18

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15.4	7.0	+8.4	49
2	St. Louis City	26	16.2	8.0	+8.2	44
3	Colorado Rapids	26	12.7	7.5	+5.2	36
4	Portland Timbers	26	19.0	14.2	+4.8	32
5	Minnesota United FC	26	17.8	13.3	+4.5	29
6	San Diego	26	14.7	12.0	+2.7	31
7	San Jose Earthquakes	26	13.6	13.1	+0.5	42
8	Houston Dynamo	26	11.6	11.1	+0.5	44
9	Los Angeles FC	27	14.5	15.8	-1.3	41
10	FC Dallas	26	10.4	11.7	-1.3	44
11	Austin	26	9.5	13.7	-4.2	30
12	Seattle Sounders	25	10.6	15.4	-4.8	32
13	Real Salt Lake	26	14.2	19.2	-5.0	29
14	Sporting Kansas City	25	9.8	18.2	-8.4	18
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	11.2	21.1	-9.9	33