Statistics / Football / USA. Major League Soccer / Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City

Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City Statistics & Analysis

Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders
Oct 02, 2026 - 01:30
2 1.40
1 1.03
xG Accuracy: 84%
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10964893

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Seattle Sounders win · Seattle Sounders 2–1 Sporting Kansas City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.52 percentage points on Seattle Sounders (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 27.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Seattle Sounders (1X2) 49.2 60.4 -11.2
Draw (1X2) 27.2 20.4 +6.8
Sporting Kansas City (1X2) 23.6 19.2 +4.4
Over 2.5 goals 43.8 71.2 -27.4
Under 2.5 goals 56.2 28.9 +27.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 56.2% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 28.9%. The difference — about 27.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Seattle Sounders (1X2) 1.56 1.6 -1.5
Draw (1X2) 4.83 4.73 +0.4
Sporting Kansas City (1X2) 5.33 5.03 +1.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.37 1.35 +1.1
Under 2.5 goals 3.21 3.33 -1.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Major League Soccer
  • Fixture: Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 01:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 49.2% · Draw 27.2% · Away 23.6%
  • xG (showing): Seattle Sounders 1.4 — Sporting Kansas City 1.03 (total xG ≈ 2.43)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 56.2% · Implied: 28.6% · Probability edge: +27.6 pts · Est. EV: +91.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Major League Soccer Major League Soccer — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15 5 6 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 32
12 San Diego 27 8 8 11 32
13 Austin 27 7 10 10 31
14 Minnesota United FC 27 7 8 12 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 59 26 +33 50
2 FC Dallas 27 50 42 +8 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 49 39 +10 45
4 St. Louis City 27 48 36 +12 47
5 Portland Timbers 27 48 51 -3 32
6 San Diego 27 47 47 0 32
7 Los Angeles FC 28 43 30 +13 41
8 Real Salt Lake 27 40 44 -4 32
9 Minnesota United FC 27 40 49 -9 29
10 Colorado Rapids 27 38 38 0 36
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 37 44 -7 36
12 Seattle Sounders 27 35 35 0 38
13 Austin 27 35 47 -12 31
14 Houston Dynamo 27 34 32 +2 44
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 32 65 -33 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15.4 7.0 +8.4 50
2 St. Louis City 27 16.2 8.0 +8.2 47
3 Colorado Rapids 27 12.7 7.5 +5.2 36
4 Portland Timbers 27 19.0 14.2 +4.8 32
5 Minnesota United FC 27 17.8 13.3 +4.5 29
6 San Diego 27 14.7 12.0 +2.7 32
7 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13.6 13.1 +0.5 45
8 Houston Dynamo 27 11.6 11.1 +0.5 44
9 Los Angeles FC 28 14.5 15.8 -1.3 41
10 FC Dallas 27 10.4 11.7 -1.3 47
11 Austin 27 9.5 13.7 -4.2 31
12 Seattle Sounders 27 10.6 15.4 -4.8 38
13 Real Salt Lake 27 14.2 19.2 -5.0 32
14 Sporting Kansas City 27 9.8 18.2 -8.4 21
15 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 11.2 21.1 -9.9 36
Major League Soccer USA. Major League Soccer Predictions