Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC Statistics & Analysis

Minnesota United FC

Aug 30, 2026 - 00:30

3 1.77

3 1.74

xG Accuracy: 50%

Orlando City SC

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Minnesota United FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 00:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5284404

Closing Odds 1.81

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Minnesota United FC 3–3 Orlando City SC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.3 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Orlando City SC (1X2) by about 13.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Minnesota United FC (1X2)	38.3	53.4	-15.1
Draw (1X2)	24.6	23.2	+1.5
Orlando City SC (1X2)	37.0	23.4	+13.6
Over 2.5 goals	68.1	64.0	+4.1
Under 2.5 goals	31.9	36.0	-4.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Orlando City SC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.4%. The difference — about 13.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Minnesota United FC (1X2)	1.83	1.81	+0.5
Draw (1X2)	4.17	4.17	-0.0
Orlando City SC (1X2)	4.04	4.12	-0.5
Over 2.5 goals	1.47	1.5	-1.3
Under 2.5 goals	2.77	2.67	+1.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Major League Soccer
Fixture: Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 00:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.3% · Draw 24.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Minnesota United FC 1.77 — Orlando City SC 1.74 (total xG ≈ 3.51)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Minnesota United FC & Orlando City SC!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Major League Soccer — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	50
2	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	47
3	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	45
4	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	44
5	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	41
7	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	9	9	10	36
9	Seattle Sounders	26	9	8	9	35
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	32
12	San Diego	27	8	8	11	32
13	Austin	27	7	10	10	31
14	Minnesota United FC	27	7	8	12	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	26	6	3	17	21

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	59	26	+33	50
2	FC Dallas	27	50	42	+8	47
3	San Jose Earthquakes	27	49	39	+10	45
4	Portland Timbers	27	48	51	-3	32
5	San Diego	27	47	47	0	32
6	St. Louis City	26	45	36	+9	44
7	Los Angeles FC	28	43	30	+13	41
8	Real Salt Lake	27	40	44	-4	32
9	Minnesota United FC	27	40	49	-9	29
10	Colorado Rapids	27	38	38	0	36
11	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	37	44	-7	36
12	Austin	27	35	47	-12	31
13	Houston Dynamo	27	34	32	+2	44
14	Seattle Sounders	26	33	34	-1	35
15	Sporting Kansas City	26	31	63	-32	21

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15.4	7.0	+8.4	50
2	St. Louis City	26	16.2	8.0	+8.2	44
3	Colorado Rapids	27	12.7	7.5	+5.2	36
4	Portland Timbers	27	19.0	14.2	+4.8	32
5	Minnesota United FC	27	17.8	13.3	+4.5	29
6	San Diego	27	14.7	12.0	+2.7	32
7	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13.6	13.1	+0.5	45
8	Houston Dynamo	27	11.6	11.1	+0.5	44
9	Los Angeles FC	28	14.5	15.8	-1.3	41
10	FC Dallas	27	10.4	11.7	-1.3	47
11	Austin	27	9.5	13.7	-4.2	31
12	Seattle Sounders	26	10.6	15.4	-4.8	35
13	Real Salt Lake	27	14.2	19.2	-5.0	32
14	Sporting Kansas City	26	9.8	18.2	-8.4	21
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	11.2	21.1	-9.9	36