Toronto FC vs New York City FC Statistics & Analysis

Toronto FC

Aug 29, 2026 - 23:30

1 1.30

1 1.68

xG Accuracy: 76%

New York City FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 New York City FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 05:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5165310

Closing Odds 2.53

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Toronto FC 1–1 New York City FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices New York City FC (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on New York City FC (1X2) by about 9.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Toronto FC (1X2)	28.3	38.3	-10.0
Draw (1X2)	26.8	25.9	+0.9
New York City FC (1X2)	44.9	35.9	+9.0
Over 2.5 goals	57.2	59.7	-2.5
Under 2.5 goals	42.8	40.3	+2.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 44.9% on New York City FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 35.9%. The difference — about 9.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Toronto FC (1X2)	2.53	2.53
Draw (1X2)	3.74	3.74
New York City FC (1X2)	2.7	2.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	2.4	2.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Major League Soccer
Fixture: Toronto FC vs New York City FC
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.3% · Draw 26.8% · Away 44.9%
xG (showing): Toronto FC 1.3 — New York City FC 1.68 (total xG ≈ 2.98)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): New York City FC
Model: 44.9% · Implied: 35.9% · Probability edge: +9.0 pts · Est. EV: +6.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 60.6% · No 39.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	50
2	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	47
3	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	45
4	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	44
5	St. Louis City	26	12	8	6	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	41
7	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	9	9	10	36
9	Seattle Sounders	26	9	8	9	35
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	32
12	San Diego	27	8	8	11	32
13	Austin	27	7	10	10	31
14	Minnesota United FC	27	7	8	12	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	26	6	3	17	21

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	59	26	+33	50
2	FC Dallas	27	50	42	+8	47
3	San Jose Earthquakes	27	49	39	+10	45
4	Portland Timbers	27	48	51	-3	32
5	San Diego	27	47	47	0	32
6	St. Louis City	26	45	36	+9	44
7	Los Angeles FC	28	43	30	+13	41
8	Real Salt Lake	27	40	44	-4	32
9	Minnesota United FC	27	40	49	-9	29
10	Colorado Rapids	27	38	38	0	36
11	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	37	44	-7	36
12	Austin	27	35	47	-12	31
13	Houston Dynamo	27	34	32	+2	44
14	Seattle Sounders	26	33	34	-1	35
15	Sporting Kansas City	26	31	63	-32	21

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15.4	7.0	+8.4	50
2	St. Louis City	26	16.2	8.0	+8.2	44
3	Colorado Rapids	27	12.7	7.5	+5.2	36
4	Portland Timbers	27	19.0	14.2	+4.8	32
5	Minnesota United FC	27	17.8	13.3	+4.5	29
6	San Diego	27	14.7	12.0	+2.7	32
7	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13.6	13.1	+0.5	45
8	Houston Dynamo	27	11.6	11.1	+0.5	44
9	Los Angeles FC	28	14.5	15.8	-1.3	41
10	FC Dallas	27	10.4	11.7	-1.3	47
11	Austin	27	9.5	13.7	-4.2	31
12	Seattle Sounders	26	10.6	15.4	-4.8	35
13	Real Salt Lake	27	14.2	19.2	-5.0	32
14	Sporting Kansas City	26	9.8	18.2	-8.4	21
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	11.2	21.1	-9.9	36