Statistics / Football / USA. Major League Soccer / Los Angeles Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC

Los Angeles Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC Statistics & Analysis

Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy
Jul 18, 2026 - 02:25
0 2.36
3 3.08
xG Accuracy: 51%
Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-3, 2-2, 1-3, 1-2, 3-3 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1491449

Closing Odds 3.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Los Angeles FC win · Los Angeles Galaxy 0–3 Los Angeles FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.32 percentage points on Los Angeles FC (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 28.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Los Angeles Galaxy (1X2) 30.2 30.0 +0.1
Draw (1X2) 19.8 23.9 -4.1
Los Angeles FC (1X2) 50.1 46.1 +4.0
Over 2.5 goals 90.8 62.8 +28.0
Under 2.5 goals 9.2 37.2 -28.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 90.8% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 62.8%. The difference — about 28.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Los Angeles Galaxy (1X2) 2.93 3.1 -1.8
Draw (1X2) 3.82 3.9 -0.5
Los Angeles FC (1X2) 2.13 2.02 +2.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.49 +1.8
Under 2.5 goals 2.4 2.52 -1.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Major League Soccer
  • Fixture: LA Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 02:25:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.2% · Draw 19.8% · Away 50.1%
  • xG (showing): LA Galaxy 2.36 — Los Angeles FC 3.08 (total xG ≈ 5.44)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 90.8% · Implied: 61.6% · Probability edge: +29.2 pts · Est. EV: +42.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer Major League Soccer — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15 5 6 50
2 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 45
4 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 44
5 St. Louis City 26 12 8 6 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 41
7 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 36
8 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 36
9 Seattle Sounders 26 9 8 9 35
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 32
12 San Diego 27 8 8 11 32
13 Austin 27 7 10 10 31
14 Minnesota United FC 27 7 8 12 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 6 3 17 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 59 26 +33 50
2 FC Dallas 27 50 42 +8 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 49 39 +10 45
4 Portland Timbers 27 48 51 -3 32
5 San Diego 27 47 47 0 32
6 St. Louis City 26 45 36 +9 44
7 Los Angeles FC 28 43 30 +13 41
8 Real Salt Lake 27 40 44 -4 32
9 Minnesota United FC 27 40 49 -9 29
10 Colorado Rapids 27 38 38 0 36
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 37 44 -7 36
12 Austin 27 35 47 -12 31
13 Houston Dynamo 27 34 32 +2 44
14 Seattle Sounders 26 33 34 -1 35
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 31 63 -32 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15.4 7.0 +8.4 50
2 St. Louis City 26 16.2 8.0 +8.2 44
3 Colorado Rapids 27 12.7 7.5 +5.2 36
4 Portland Timbers 27 19.0 14.2 +4.8 32
5 Minnesota United FC 27 17.8 13.3 +4.5 29
6 San Diego 27 14.7 12.0 +2.7 32
7 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13.6 13.1 +0.5 45
8 Houston Dynamo 27 11.6 11.1 +0.5 44
9 Los Angeles FC 28 14.5 15.8 -1.3 41
10 FC Dallas 27 10.4 11.7 -1.3 47
11 Austin 27 9.5 13.7 -4.2 31
12 Seattle Sounders 26 10.6 15.4 -4.8 35
13 Real Salt Lake 27 14.2 19.2 -5.0 32
14 Sporting Kansas City 26 9.8 18.2 -8.4 21
15 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 11.2 21.1 -9.9 36
Major League Soccer USA. Major League Soccer Predictions