Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps Statistics & Analysis

Chicago Fire

Oct 07, 2026 - 00:30

3 1.01

1 1.54

xG Accuracy: 50%

Vancouver Whitecaps

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vancouver Whitecaps Chicago Fire ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 06, 2026 · 21:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7408738

Closing Odds 2.75

AI Fair Odds 1.14

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Chicago Fire win · Chicago Fire 3–1 Vancouver Whitecaps

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 87.6%

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Vancouver Whitecaps (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Vancouver Whitecaps (1X2) by about 5.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Chicago Fire (1X2)	25.7	34.2	-8.4
Draw (1X2)	27.5	24.1	+3.4
Vancouver Whitecaps (1X2)	46.8	41.8	+5.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 46.8% on Vancouver Whitecaps (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 41.8%. The difference — about 5.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Chicago Fire (1X2)	2.75	2.75
Draw (1X2)	3.9	3.9
Vancouver Whitecaps (1X2)	2.25	2.25

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Major League Soccer
Fixture: Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Kickoff: 2026-10-07 00:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 25.7% · Draw 27.5% · Away 46.8%
xG (showing): Chicago Fire 1.01 — Vancouver Whitecaps 1.54 (total xG ≈ 2.55)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 53.1% · Implied: 34.5% · Probability edge: +18.6 pts · Est. EV: +52.9%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Major League Soccer — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	5	7	50
2	St. Louis City	27	13	8	6	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	36
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	9	9	10	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	32
12	San Diego	27	8	8	11	32
13	Austin	27	7	10	10	31
14	Minnesota United FC	27	7	8	12	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	21

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	60	29	+31	50
2	FC Dallas	27	50	42	+8	47
3	San Jose Earthquakes	27	49	39	+10	45
4	St. Louis City	27	48	36	+12	47
5	Portland Timbers	27	48	51	-3	32
6	San Diego	27	47	47	0	32
7	Los Angeles FC	28	43	30	+13	41
8	Real Salt Lake	27	40	44	-4	32
9	Minnesota United FC	27	40	49	-9	29
10	Colorado Rapids	27	38	38	0	36
11	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	37	44	-7	36
12	Seattle Sounders	27	35	35	0	38
13	Austin	27	35	47	-12	31
14	Houston Dynamo	27	34	32	+2	44
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	32	65	-33	21

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15.4	7.0	+8.4	50
2	St. Louis City	27	16.2	8.0	+8.2	47
3	Colorado Rapids	27	12.7	7.5	+5.2	36
4	Portland Timbers	27	19.0	14.2	+4.8	32
5	Minnesota United FC	27	17.8	13.3	+4.5	29
6	San Diego	27	14.7	12.0	+2.7	32
7	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13.6	13.1	+0.5	45
8	Houston Dynamo	27	11.6	11.1	+0.5	44
9	Los Angeles FC	28	14.5	15.8	-1.3	41
10	FC Dallas	27	10.4	11.7	-1.3	47
11	Austin	27	9.5	13.7	-4.2	31
12	Seattle Sounders	27	10.6	15.4	-4.8	38
13	Real Salt Lake	27	14.2	19.2	-5.0	32
14	Sporting Kansas City	27	9.8	18.2	-8.4	21
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	11.2	21.1	-9.9	36