Dobrovice vs Čáslav Statistics & Analysis

Dobrovice

May 23, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 31%

Čáslav

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Dobrovice Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-2, 1-2, 0-3, 1-3, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1622783

Closing Odds 1.13

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Dobrovice 0–0 Čáslav

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Dobrovice (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Dobrovice (1X2) by about 33.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Dobrovice (1X2)	41.8	8.6	+33.2
Draw (1X2)	25.7	12.9	+12.7
Čáslav (1X2)	32.6	78.5	-45.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Dobrovice (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.6%. The difference — about 33.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Dobrovice (1X2)	10.35	10.35
Draw (1X2)	6.86	6.86
Čáslav (1X2)	1.13	1.13

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Dobrovice; market prices Čáslav instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Dobrovice 1.45 xG vs Čáslav 1.25 → Dobrovice 41.8%
Market: Čáslav ~8.6% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 31.2% · Over 2.5 68.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

4. liga - Divizie C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Čáslav	29	20	3	6	63
2	Horní Ředice	29	19	2	8	59
3	Vysoké Mýto	29	17	7	5	58
4	Přepeře	29	17	3	8	55
5	Turnov	29	15	6	8	51
6	Kosmonosy	29	14	7	8	49
7	Trutnov	29	14	5	10	47
8	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	29	12	5	12	41
9	Spartak Police n/Metují	28	10	8	10	38
10	Hlinsko	28	11	2	14	35
11	Brandýs nad Labem	29	7	13	9	34
12	Chrudim II	29	9	6	14	33
13	Svitavy	29	8	7	14	31
14	Slovan Hrádek nad Nisou	29	6	5	18	23
15	Náchod	29	4	5	20	17
16	Dobrovice	29	4	4	21	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Čáslav	29	72	35	+37	63
2	Horní Ředice	29	72	40	+32	59
3	Turnov	29	67	54	+13	51
4	Kosmonosy	29	61	42	+19	49
5	Trutnov	29	61	53	+8	47
6	Hlinsko	28	60	61	-1	35
7	Přepeře	29	58	36	+22	55
8	Vysoké Mýto	29	53	23	+30	58
9	Náchod	29	43	70	-27	17
10	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	29	42	40	+2	41
11	Svitavy	29	42	67	-25	31
12	Brandýs nad Labem	29	41	51	-10	34
13	Chrudim II	29	41	54	-13	33
14	Spartak Police n/Metují	28	39	50	-11	38
15	Dobrovice	29	27	77	-50	16
16	Slovan Hrádek nad Nisou	29	26	49	-23	23