Králův Dvůr vs Aritma Praha Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: 3. liga - CFL A
• Fixture: Králův Dvůr vs Aritma Praha
• Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
• xG (showing): Králův Dvůr 1.45 — Aritma Praha 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
• Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 42.3% · Over 2.5 57.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 55.9% · No 44.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
• BTTS (model): Yes 55.9% · No 44.1%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

The decision block shows no default bet: no tracked line clears the headline minimum +EV threshold at the best prices we have (a leg can still show small +EV below that bar). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

No clear +EV headline on this snapshot.

Treat this page as a read-only diagnostic: totals/BTTS structure can be informative even when the honest answer is to wait.

Re-check after material price moves; edges appear and disappear with liquidity.

Should I still read the 1X2 card?

Yes — it shows whether any winner price clears value. Here it often explains why there is no headline: probabilities can be clustered while prices already embed that uncertainty.

When would a headline +EV return?

When odds move enough that implied probabilities drop relative to the same model snapshot, or when more book prices arrive so EV can be computed reliably — then re-run the pipeline.

Why is there no “best bet” on this page?

The headline engine uses a minimum +EV threshold (e.g. 2%) for a default pick. A line can still show tiny +EV that fails that bar — we still call it no default bet so readers do not over-size thin edges.

What do the grey “lean” labels mean then?

They summarise where the model tilts (e.g. Under 2.5 or BTTS No) without claiming a positive economic edge. Use them as context; size to zero unless you deliberately accept discretionary risk.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 17, 2026 (UTC)