Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B / Velké Hamry vs Sokol Zápy

Velké Hamry vs Sokol Zápy Statistics & Analysis

Velké Hamry Velké Hamry
May 30, 2026 - 08:30
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Sokol Zápy Sokol Zápy
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Velké Hamry Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 23:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1772914

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Velké Hamry 1–1 Sokol Zápy
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Velké Hamry (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Velké Hamry (1X2) by about 12.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Velké Hamry (1X2) 41.8 28.9 +12.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 21.7 +4.0
Sokol Zápy (1X2) 32.6 49.4 -16.9
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 59.4 -8.8
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 40.6 +8.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Velké Hamry (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.9%. The difference — about 12.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Velké Hamry (1X2) 3.11 3.11 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.15 4.15 0.0
Sokol Zápy (1X2) 1.82 1.82 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.55 1.55 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.27 2.27 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL B
  • Fixture: Velké Hamry vs Sokol Zápy
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Velké Hamry 1.45 — Sokol Zápy 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 41.1% · Probability edge: +8.3 pts · Est. EV: +13.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.0% · No 40.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - CFL B 3. liga - CFL B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kladno 32 22 6 4 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 22 3 7 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 18 7 7 61
4 Písek 32 15 7 10 52
5 Králův Dvůr 32 15 4 13 49
6 Admira Praha 32 14 6 12 48
7 Slavia III 32 13 7 12 46
8 České Budějovice II 32 11 12 9 45
9 Aritma Praha 32 11 12 9 45
10 Loko Vltavín 32 13 5 14 44
11 Příbram II 32 12 4 16 40
12 Bohemians 1905 II 32 10 8 14 38
13 Dukla Praha II 32 11 5 16 38
14 Motorlet Praha 32 8 10 14 34
15 Sokol Hostouň 32 8 10 14 34
16 Petřín Plzeň 32 8 4 20 28
17 Táborsko II 32 4 4 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kladno 32 84 26 +58 72
2 Jiskra Domažlice 32 80 42 +38 69
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 32 75 53 +22 61
4 České Budějovice II 32 63 58 +5 45
5 Králův Dvůr 32 59 56 +3 49
6 Bohemians 1905 II 32 57 60 -3 38
7 Slavia III 32 54 47 +7 46
8 Písek 32 50 38 +12 52
9 Dukla Praha II 32 48 57 -9 38
10 Admira Praha 32 47 51 -4 48
11 Aritma Praha 32 45 45 0 45
12 Příbram II 32 45 56 -11 40
13 Petřín Plzeň 32 38 73 -35 28
14 Loko Vltavín 32 35 43 -8 44
15 Motorlet Praha 32 32 45 -13 34
16 Sokol Hostouň 32 30 44 -14 34
17 Táborsko II 32 27 75 -48 16
3. liga - CFL B Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B Predictions