Slovan Velvary vs Jablonec II Statistics & Analysis

Slovan Velvary

May 09, 2026 - 13:00

3 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Jablonec II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Slovan Velvary Slovan Velvary ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1488696

Closing Odds 2.07

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Slovan Velvary win · Slovan Velvary 3–1 Jablonec II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Jablonec II (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Slovan Velvary (1X2)	41.8	44.2	-2.5
Draw (1X2)	25.7	25.5	+0.1
Jablonec II (1X2)	32.6	30.2	+2.3
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	63.2	-12.6
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	36.8	+12.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.8%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Slovan Velvary (1X2)	2.07	2.07
Draw (1X2)	3.59	3.59
Jablonec II (1X2)	3.03	3.03
Over 2.5 goals	1.46	1.46
Under 2.5 goals	2.51	2.51

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. liga - CFL B
Fixture: Slovan Velvary vs Jablonec II
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Slovan Velvary 1.45 — Jablonec II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 49.4% · Implied: 37.1% · Probability edge: +12.3 pts · Est. EV: +24.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - CFL B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kladno	32	22	6	4	72
2	Jiskra Domažlice	32	22	3	7	69
3	Viktoria Plzeň II	32	18	7	7	61
4	Písek	32	15	7	10	52
5	Králův Dvůr	32	15	4	13	49
6	Admira Praha	32	14	6	12	48
7	Slavia III	32	13	7	12	46
8	České Budějovice II	32	11	12	9	45
9	Aritma Praha	32	11	12	9	45
10	Loko Vltavín	32	13	5	14	44
11	Příbram II	32	12	4	16	40
12	Bohemians 1905 II	32	10	8	14	38
13	Dukla Praha II	32	11	5	16	38
14	Motorlet Praha	32	8	10	14	34
15	Sokol Hostouň	32	8	10	14	34
16	Petřín Plzeň	32	8	4	20	28
17	Táborsko II	32	4	4	24	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kladno	32	84	26	+58	72
2	Jiskra Domažlice	32	80	42	+38	69
3	Viktoria Plzeň II	32	75	53	+22	61
4	České Budějovice II	32	63	58	+5	45
5	Králův Dvůr	32	59	56	+3	49
6	Bohemians 1905 II	32	57	60	-3	38
7	Slavia III	32	54	47	+7	46
8	Písek	32	50	38	+12	52
9	Dukla Praha II	32	48	57	-9	38
10	Admira Praha	32	47	51	-4	48
11	Aritma Praha	32	45	45	0	45
12	Příbram II	32	45	56	-11	40
13	Petřín Plzeň	32	38	73	-35	28
14	Loko Vltavín	32	35	43	-8	44
15	Motorlet Praha	32	32	45	-13	34
16	Sokol Hostouň	32	30	44	-14	34
17	Táborsko II	32	27	75	-48	16