Statistics / Football / World. World Cup / Croatia vs Ghana

Croatia vs Ghana Statistics & Analysis

Croatia Croatia
Jun 27, 2026 - 21:00
2 2.01
1 0.69
xG Accuracy: 92%
Ghana Ghana
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Croatia Croatia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 12:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3173406

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 1.49
CLV Pending
Final Result Croatia win · Croatia 2–1 Ghana
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 67.1%
  • Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: World Cup
  • Fixture: Croatia vs Ghana
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 67.1% · Draw 22.3% · Away 10.6%
  • xG (showing): Croatia 2.0091272246188674 — Ghana 0.6908727753811323 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 50.6% · Implied: 40.8% · Probability edge: +9.8 pts · Est. EV: +25.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.4% · No 55.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (13.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
World Cup World Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 4
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 3
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 South Africa 3 2 3 -1 4
3 South Korea 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 3 2 6 -4 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 South Korea 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 South Africa 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Czech Republic 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1