Statistics / Football / World. World Cup / New Zealand vs Belgium

New Zealand vs Belgium Statistics & Analysis

New Zealand New Zealand
Jun 27, 2026 - 03:00
1 0.89
5 1.81
xG Accuracy: 40%
Belgium Belgium
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Belgium Belgium ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1660456

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Belgium win · New Zealand 1–5 Belgium
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices New Zealand (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 21.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
New Zealand (1X2) 16.8 6.9 +9.9
Draw (1X2) 25.6 12.1 +13.5
Belgium (1X2) 57.5 80.9 -23.4
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 72.2 -21.6
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 27.8 +21.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 27.8%. The difference — about 21.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
New Zealand (1X2) 14.0 14.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 8.0 8.0 0.0
Belgium (1X2) 1.2 1.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.31 1.31 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.4 3.4 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: World Cup
  • Fixture: New Zealand vs Belgium
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 03:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 16.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 57.5%
  • xG (showing): New Zealand 0.8929024125008957 — Belgium 1.8070975874991044 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
World Cup World Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 4
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 3
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 South Africa 3 2 3 -1 4
3 South Korea 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 3 2 6 -4 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 South Korea 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 South Africa 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Czech Republic 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1