Statistics / Football / World. World Cup / Ecuador vs Germany

Ecuador vs Germany Statistics & Analysis

Ecuador Ecuador
Jun 25, 2026 - 20:00
2 1.37
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 77%
Germany Germany
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ecuador Ecuador ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1549733

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds 2.76
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ecuador win · Ecuador 2–1 Germany
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 36.2%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.21 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ecuador (1X2) by about 16.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ecuador (1X2) 36.2 19.9 +16.4
Draw (1X2) 29.0 20.1 +8.9
Germany (1X2) 34.7 60.1 -25.3
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 58.5 -7.9
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 41.5 +7.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.2% on Ecuador (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.9%. The difference — about 16.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ecuador (1X2) 5.0 4.9 +0.3
Draw (1X2) 4.9 4.85 +0.2
Germany (1X2) 1.61 1.62 -0.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.65 -1.2
Under 2.5 goals 2.39 2.33 +1.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: World Cup
  • Fixture: Ecuador vs Germany
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-25 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.2% · Draw 29.0% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Ecuador 1.3668741211486781 — Germany 1.333125878851322 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 42.2% · Probability edge: +7.2 pts · Est. EV: +15.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.5% · No 43.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
World Cup World Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 4
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 3
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 South Africa 3 2 3 -1 4
3 South Korea 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 3 2 6 -4 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 South Korea 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 South Africa 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Czech Republic 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1