Statistics / Football / World. World Cup / Ghana vs Panama

Ghana vs Panama Statistics & Analysis

Ghana Ghana
Jun 17, 2026 - 23:00
1 0.97
0 1.73
xG Accuracy: 62%
Panama Panama
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Panama Ghana ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 20:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1504535

Closing Odds 3.38
AI Fair Odds 1.85
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ghana win · Ghana 1–0 Panama
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 54.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Panama (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Panama (1X2) by about 25.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ghana (1X2) 19.4 40.6 -21.2
Draw (1X2) 26.6 30.5 -3.9
Panama (1X2) 54.0 28.9 +25.1
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 39.9 +10.8
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 60.1 -10.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 54.0% on Panama (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.9%. The difference — about 25.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ghana (1X2) 2.41 2.41 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.21 3.21 0.0
Panama (1X2) 3.38 3.38 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.43 2.43 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.61 1.61 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: World Cup
  • Fixture: Ghana vs Panama
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-17 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 19.4% · Draw 26.6% · Away 54.0%
  • xG (showing): Ghana 0.9660138490149183 — Panama 1.733986150985082 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 50.6% · Implied: 40.4% · Probability edge: +10.2 pts · Est. EV: +23.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (11.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
World Cup World Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 4
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 3
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 South Africa 3 2 3 -1 4
3 South Korea 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 3 2 6 -4 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 South Korea 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 South Africa 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Czech Republic 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1