Statistics / Football / World. World Cup / Germany vs Curaçao

Germany vs Curaçao Statistics & Analysis

Germany Germany
Jun 14, 2026 - 17:00
7 2.08
1 0.62
xG Accuracy: 23%
Curaçao Curaçao
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Germany Germany ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 7-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 17:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1905273

Closing Odds 1.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Germany win · Germany 7–1 Curaçao
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Curaçao (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 16.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Germany (1X2) 70.5 93.6 -23.1
Draw (1X2) 20.8 4.1 +16.7
Curaçao (1X2) 8.7 2.3 +6.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 20.8% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 4.1%. The difference — about 16.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Germany (1X2) 1.05 1.05 0.0
Draw (1X2) 24.0 24.0 0.0
Curaçao (1X2) 43.5 43.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: World Cup
  • Fixture: Germany vs Curaçao
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 70.5% · Draw 20.8% · Away 8.7%
  • xG (showing): Germany 2.0833829009592315 — Curaçao 0.6166170990407689 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.4% · Over 2.5 50.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 41.4% · No 58.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.4% · No 58.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (14.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
World Cup World Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 4
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 3
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 South Africa 3 2 3 -1 4
3 South Korea 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 3 2 6 -4 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 South Korea 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 South Africa 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Czech Republic 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1