Statistics / Football / World. World Cup / Haiti vs Scotland

Haiti vs Scotland Statistics & Analysis

Haiti Haiti
Jun 14, 2026 - 01:00
0 2.16
1 0.54
xG Accuracy: 49%
Scotland Scotland
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Haiti Scotland ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 18:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2944791

Closing Odds 6.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Scotland win · Haiti 0–1 Scotland
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Haiti (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Haiti (1X2) by about 57.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Haiti (1X2) 74.0 16.3 +57.8
Draw (1X2) 19.1 21.0 -1.9
Scotland (1X2) 6.8 62.7 -55.9
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 58.4 -7.8
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 41.6 +7.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 74.0% on Haiti (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.3%. The difference — about 57.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Haiti (1X2) 6.0 6.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.65 4.65 0.0
Scotland (1X2) 1.56 1.56 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.65 1.65 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.32 2.32 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Haiti; market prices Scotland instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Haiti 2.16 xG vs Scotland 0.54 → Haiti 74.0%
  • Market: Scotland ~16.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
World Cup World Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 9
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 4
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 3
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6 0 +6 9
2 South Africa 3 2 3 -1 4
3 South Korea 3 2 3 -1 3
4 Czech Republic 3 2 6 -4 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Mexico 3 6.6 3.8 +2.8 9
2 South Korea 3 4.1 2.5 +1.6 3
3 South Africa 3 2.7 4.7 -2.0 4
4 Czech Republic 3 2.4 5.4 -3.0 1