Slavia Sofia II vs Kyustendil Statistics & Analysis

Slavia Sofia II

May 17, 2026 - 13:00

8 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 15%

Kyustendil

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Slavia Sofia II Slavia Sofia II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 8-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 16:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3060429

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Slavia Sofia II win · Slavia Sofia II 8–1 Kyustendil

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Third League - Southwest
Fixture: Slavia Sofia II vs Kyustendil
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Slavia Sofia II 1.45 — Kyustendil 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.4% · Over 2.5 56.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.9% · No 42.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 57.9% · No 42.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Third League - Southwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Rilski Sportist	34	25	5	4	80
2	Strumska Slava	34	20	5	9	65
3	Slavia Sofia II	34	17	6	11	57
4	Botev Ihtiman	34	14	9	11	51
5	Kyustendil	34	15	5	14	50
6	CSKA Sofia III	34	15	5	14	50
7	Oborishte	34	14	7	13	49
8	Balkan Botevgrad	34	13	10	11	49
9	Septemvri Sofia II	34	13	9	12	48
10	Septemvri Simitli	34	13	8	13	47
11	Kostinbrod	34	14	5	15	47
12	Pirin Razlog	34	13	6	15	45
13	Bansko	34	11	11	12	44
14	Slivnishki geroy	34	11	9	14	42
15	Levski Sofia II	34	11	7	16	40
16	Pirin Gotse Delchev	34	11	4	19	37
17	Germaneya	34	4	6	24	18
18	Vitosha Bistritsa	34	11	5	18	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Strumska Slava	34	71	45	+26	65
2	Slavia Sofia II	34	68	44	+24	57
3	Rilski Sportist	34	58	23	+35	80
4	Botev Ihtiman	34	53	40	+13	51
5	Septemvri Sofia II	34	50	43	+7	48
6	Balkan Botevgrad	34	50	45	+5	49
7	CSKA Sofia III	34	49	43	+6	50
8	Kyustendil	34	49	52	-3	50
9	Kostinbrod	34	47	51	-4	47
10	Vitosha Bistritsa	34	44	62	-18	0
11	Oborishte	34	43	37	+6	49
12	Pirin Razlog	34	43	48	-5	45
13	Pirin Gotse Delchev	34	43	70	-27	37
14	Septemvri Simitli	34	41	40	+1	47
15	Slivnishki geroy	34	40	49	-9	42
16	Bansko	34	39	45	-6	44
17	Germaneya	34	38	75	-37	18
18	Levski Sofia II	34	30	44	-14	40