Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie E / Skaštice vs Uherský Brod

Skaštice vs Uherský Brod Statistics & Analysis

Skaštice Skaštice
May 29, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Uherský Brod Uherský Brod
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Skaštice Uherský Brod ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-2, 0-1, 0-3, 1-2, 1-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 12:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3173141

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Uherský Brod win · Skaštice 1–4 Uherský Brod
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Skaštice (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Skaštice (1X2) by about 22.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Skaštice (1X2) 41.8 19.2 +22.6
Draw (1X2) 25.7 21.1 +4.5
Uherský Brod (1X2) 32.6 59.7 -27.1
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 52.0 -1.4
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 48.0 +1.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Skaštice (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.2%. The difference — about 22.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Skaštice (1X2) 4.61 4.61 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.18 4.18 0.0
Uherský Brod (1X2) 1.48 1.48 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie E
  • Fixture: Skaštice vs Uherský Brod
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-31 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Skaštice 1.45 — Uherský Brod 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 56.2% · Implied: 46.7% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +11.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.6% · No 42.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-2 (13.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
4. liga - Divizie E 4. liga - Divizie E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uherský Brod 27 21 6 0 69
2 Kozlovice 28 16 8 4 56
3 Tatran Všechovice 28 17 5 7 53
4 Strání 27 16 3 8 51
5 Sokol Lanžhot 26 13 6 7 45
6 Slavičín 27 13 6 9 45
7 Brumov 27 13 4 10 43
8 Bzenec 27 13 2 12 41
9 Baťov 27 9 7 11 34
10 Břeclav 28 10 3 15 33
11 Kroměříž II 28 8 3 17 27
12 Holešov 27 6 6 15 24
13 Šternberk 28 5 7 16 22
14 Nové Sady 26 3 8 15 17
15 Skaštice 27 3 4 20 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tatran Všechovice 28 67 38 +29 53
2 Kozlovice 28 59 30 +29 56
3 Bzenec 27 59 52 +7 41
4 Uherský Brod 27 55 14 +41 69
5 Strání 27 54 32 +22 51
6 Sokol Lanžhot 26 45 25 +20 45
7 Brumov 27 42 34 +8 43
8 Slavičín 27 40 38 +2 45
9 Holešov 27 39 53 -14 24
10 Břeclav 28 36 50 -14 33
11 Šternberk 28 35 54 -19 22
12 Baťov 27 31 41 -10 34
13 Kroměříž II 28 30 55 -25 27
14 Nové Sady 26 27 53 -26 17
15 Skaštice 27 24 78 -54 13
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