Tatran Bohunice vs Dálnice Speřice Statistics & Analysis

Tatran Bohunice

May 16, 2026 - 08:15

1 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

Dálnice Speřice

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Tatran Bohunice Tatran Bohunice ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 03:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1962481

Closing Odds 1.11

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tatran Bohunice win · Tatran Bohunice 1–0 Dálnice Speřice

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Dálnice Speřice (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Dálnice Speřice (1X2) by about 25.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tatran Bohunice (1X2)	41.8	80.1	-38.3
Draw (1X2)	25.7	12.5	+13.2
Dálnice Speřice (1X2)	32.6	7.4	+25.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Dálnice Speřice (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 7.4%. The difference — about 25.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Tatran Bohunice (1X2)	1.11	1.11
Draw (1X2)	7.1	7.1
Dálnice Speřice (1X2)	12.03	12.03

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Tatran Bohunice; market prices Tatran Bohunice instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Tatran Bohunice 1.45 xG vs Dálnice Speřice 1.25 → Tatran Bohunice 41.8%
Market: Tatran Bohunice ~80.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.0% · Over 2.5 43.0%); BTTS No (Yes 43.7% · No 56.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie D — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Líšeň II	29	22	4	3	70
2	Tatran Bohunice	30	18	6	6	60
3	Kuřim	29	16	7	6	55
4	Velká Bíteš	29	15	6	8	51
5	Znojmo	30	14	6	10	48
6	Velké Meziříčí	29	12	7	10	43
7	Pelhřimov	29	11	7	11	40
8	Ždírec nad Doubravou	29	11	6	12	39
9	Sokol Tasovice	29	10	7	12	37
10	Žďár nad Sázavou	29	10	6	13	36
11	Chotebor	29	10	4	15	34
12	Sparta Brno	29	9	4	16	31
13	Havlíčkův Brod	29	7	7	15	28
14	Humpolec	29	8	4	17	28
15	FS Třebíč	29	5	12	12	27
16	Dálnice Speřice	29	7	3	19	24

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Líšeň II	29	91	26	+65	70
2	Znojmo	30	62	37	+25	48
3	Kuřim	29	58	28	+30	55
4	Velká Bíteš	29	58	38	+20	51
5	Velké Meziříčí	29	52	48	+4	43
6	Sparta Brno	29	52	55	-3	31
7	Pelhřimov	29	47	59	-12	40
8	Sokol Tasovice	29	44	59	-15	37
9	Humpolec	29	43	55	-12	28
10	Tatran Bohunice	30	41	24	+17	60
11	Havlíčkův Brod	29	39	48	-9	28
12	FS Třebíč	29	33	58	-25	27
13	Žďár nad Sázavou	29	32	52	-20	36
14	Chotebor	29	32	54	-22	34
15	Ždírec nad Doubravou	29	30	41	-11	39
16	Dálnice Speřice	29	24	56	-32	24