Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Dálnice Speřice Statistics & Analysis

Ždírec nad Doubravou

May 03, 2026 - 14:30

0 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Dálnice Speřice

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Ždírec nad Doubravou Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3430954

Closing Odds 1.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Ždírec nad Doubravou 0–0 Dálnice Speřice

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Dálnice Speřice (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ždírec nad Doubravou (1X2)	41.8	53.7	-11.9
Draw (1X2)	25.7	22.4	+3.3
Dálnice Speřice (1X2)	32.6	23.9	+8.7
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	60.0	-9.3
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	40.0	+9.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.0%. The difference — about 9.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Ždírec nad Doubravou (1X2)	1.67	1.67
Draw (1X2)	4.0	4.0
Dálnice Speřice (1X2)	3.75	3.75

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Back to Statistics

4. liga - Divizie D — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Líšeň II	29	22	4	3	70
2	Tatran Bohunice	30	18	6	6	60
3	Kuřim	29	16	7	6	55
4	Velká Bíteš	29	15	6	8	51
5	Znojmo	30	14	6	10	48
6	Velké Meziříčí	29	12	7	10	43
7	Pelhřimov	29	11	7	11	40
8	Ždírec nad Doubravou	29	11	6	12	39
9	Sokol Tasovice	29	10	7	12	37
10	Žďár nad Sázavou	29	10	6	13	36
11	Chotebor	29	10	4	15	34
12	Sparta Brno	29	9	4	16	31
13	Havlíčkův Brod	29	7	7	15	28
14	Humpolec	29	8	4	17	28
15	FS Třebíč	29	5	12	12	27
16	Dálnice Speřice	29	7	3	19	24

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Líšeň II	29	91	26	+65	70
2	Znojmo	30	62	37	+25	48
3	Kuřim	29	58	28	+30	55
4	Velká Bíteš	29	58	38	+20	51
5	Velké Meziříčí	29	52	48	+4	43
6	Sparta Brno	29	52	55	-3	31
7	Pelhřimov	29	47	59	-12	40
8	Sokol Tasovice	29	44	59	-15	37
9	Humpolec	29	43	55	-12	28
10	Tatran Bohunice	30	41	24	+17	60
11	Havlíčkův Brod	29	39	48	-9	28
12	FS Třebíč	29	33	58	-25	27
13	Žďár nad Sázavou	29	32	52	-20	36
14	Chotebor	29	32	54	-22	34
15	Ždírec nad Doubravou	29	30	41	-11	39
16	Dálnice Speřice	29	24	56	-32	24