Start Brno vs Vsetín Statistics & Analysis

Start Brno

May 24, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.45

7 1.25

xG Accuracy: 14%

Vsetín

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Start Brno Vsetín ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 0-7 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 21:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3005134

Closing Odds 1.09

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Vsetín win · Start Brno 0–7 Vsetín

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Start Brno (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Start Brno (1X2) by about 34.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Start Brno (1X2)	41.8	7.5	+34.3
Draw (1X2)	25.7	12.5	+13.2
Vsetín (1X2)	32.6	80.1	-47.5
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	65.4	-14.8
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	34.6	+14.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Start Brno (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 7.5%. The difference — about 34.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Start Brno (1X2)	11.68	11.68
Draw (1X2)	7.0	7.0
Vsetín (1X2)	1.09	1.09
Over 2.5 goals	1.37	1.37
Under 2.5 goals	2.59	2.59

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Start Brno; market prices Vsetín instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Start Brno 1.45 xG vs Vsetín 1.25 → Start Brno 41.8%
Market: Vsetín ~7.5% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 44.6% · Over 2.5 55.4%); BTTS No (Yes 41.5% · No 58.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Třinec	34	23	7	4	76
2	Hodonín	33	21	7	5	70
3	Sigma Olomouc II	34	19	6	10	62
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	33	19	4	10	61
5	Uničov	33	17	11	6	61
6	Frýdek-Místek	33	16	10	7	58
7	Vrchovina	33	16	7	10	55
8	Unie Hlubina	33	13	8	12	47
9	Vsetín	33	13	6	14	45
10	Zlín II	34	11	10	13	43
11	Vítkovice	33	11	7	15	40
12	Slovácko II	33	9	11	13	38
13	Polanka nad Odrou	34	9	8	17	35
14	Hranice	33	7	9	17	30
15	Blansko	33	9	3	21	30
16	Karviná II	33	7	8	18	29
17	Hlučín	33	6	7	20	25
18	Start Brno	33	4	12	18	24

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Třinec	34	75	27	+48	76
2	Hodonín	33	75	36	+39	70
3	Sigma Olomouc II	34	71	33	+38	62
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	33	67	46	+21	61
5	Vrchovina	33	63	49	+14	55
6	Zlín II	34	57	64	-7	43
7	Frýdek-Místek	33	52	37	+15	58
8	Uničov	33	52	41	+11	61
9	Unie Hlubina	33	51	47	+4	47
10	Vsetín	33	51	52	-1	45
11	Slovácko II	33	48	54	-6	38
12	Vítkovice	33	46	55	-9	40
13	Blansko	33	44	77	-33	30
14	Hlučín	33	39	72	-33	25
15	Karviná II	33	38	59	-21	29
16	Hranice	33	37	58	-21	30
17	Polanka nad Odrou	34	37	62	-25	35
18	Start Brno	33	32	66	-34	24