Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Nations League Women / Uruguay W vs Venezuela W

Uruguay W vs Venezuela W Statistics & Analysis

Uruguay W Uruguay W
Jun 09, 2026 - 23:00
1 1.77
1 1.16
xG Accuracy: 77%
Venezuela W Venezuela W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Uruguay W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1654223

Closing Odds 3.86
AI Fair Odds 1.99
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Uruguay W 1–1 Venezuela W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 50.2%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Uruguay W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Uruguay W (1X2) by about 26.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Uruguay W (1X2) 50.2 23.4 +26.8
Draw (1X2) 26.2 27.4 -1.2
Venezuela W (1X2) 23.5 49.2 -25.6
Over 2.5 goals 56.1 45.7 +10.4
Under 2.5 goals 43.9 54.3 -10.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.2% on Uruguay W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.4%. The difference — about 26.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Uruguay W (1X2) 3.86 3.86 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Venezuela W (1X2) 1.84 1.84 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.04 2.04 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.72 1.72 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: CONMEBOL Nations League Women
  • Fixture: Uruguay W vs Venezuela W
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-09 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.2% · Draw 26.2% · Away 23.5%
  • xG (showing): Uruguay W 1.77 — Venezuela W 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.93)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 56.1% · Implied: 45.7% · Probability edge: +10.4 pts · Est. EV: +16.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.4% · No 41.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Nations League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Colombia W 8 6 2 0 20
2 Argentina W 8 5 3 0 18
3 Venezuela W 8 3 3 2 12
4 Ecuador W 8 3 2 3 11
5 Peru W 8 3 2 3 11
6 Paraguay W 8 3 1 4 10
7 Chile W 8 3 1 4 10
8 Uruguay W 8 1 3 4 6
9 Bolivia W 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Venezuela W 8 19 6 +13 12
2 Argentina W 8 18 5 +13 18
3 Paraguay W 8 17 11 +6 10
4 Colombia W 8 16 7 +9 20
5 Peru W 8 12 15 -3 11
6 Chile W 8 11 9 +2 10
7 Ecuador W 8 8 6 +2 11
8 Uruguay W 8 7 11 -4 6
9 Bolivia W 8 2 40 -38 1