Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Nations League Women / Peru W vs Bolivia W

Peru W vs Bolivia W Statistics & Analysis

Peru W Peru W
Jun 09, 2026 - 23:00
4 1.92
0 1.01
xG Accuracy: 43%
Bolivia W Bolivia W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Peru W Peru W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1629318

Closing Odds 1.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Peru W win · Peru W 4–0 Bolivia W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bolivia W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 15.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Peru W (1X2) 57.2 84.3 -27.1
Draw (1X2) 24.7 9.6 +15.0
Bolivia W (1X2) 18.1 6.0 +12.1
Over 2.5 goals 56.1 67.4 -11.3
Under 2.5 goals 43.9 32.6 +11.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 24.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.6%. The difference — about 15.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Peru W (1X2) 1.08 1.08 0.0
Draw (1X2) 9.46 9.46 0.0
Bolivia W (1X2) 15.09 15.09 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.81 2.81 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: CONMEBOL Nations League Women
  • Fixture: Peru W vs Bolivia W
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-09 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 57.2% · Draw 24.7% · Away 18.1%
  • xG (showing): Peru W 1.92 — Bolivia W 1.01 (total xG ≈ 2.93)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.9% · Over 2.5 56.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 55.6% · No 44.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.6% · No 44.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Nations League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Colombia W 8 6 2 0 20
2 Argentina W 8 5 3 0 18
3 Venezuela W 8 3 3 2 12
4 Ecuador W 8 3 2 3 11
5 Peru W 8 3 2 3 11
6 Paraguay W 8 3 1 4 10
7 Chile W 8 3 1 4 10
8 Uruguay W 8 1 3 4 6
9 Bolivia W 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Venezuela W 8 19 6 +13 12
2 Argentina W 8 18 5 +13 18
3 Paraguay W 8 17 11 +6 10
4 Colombia W 8 16 7 +9 20
5 Peru W 8 12 15 -3 11
6 Chile W 8 11 9 +2 10
7 Ecuador W 8 8 6 +2 11
8 Uruguay W 8 7 11 -4 6
9 Bolivia W 8 2 40 -38 1