Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Nations League Women / Ecuador W vs Argentina W

Ecuador W vs Argentina W Statistics & Analysis

Ecuador W Ecuador W
Jun 09, 2026 - 23:00
0 1.81
1 1.12
xG Accuracy: 59%
Argentina W Argentina W
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ecuador W Argentina W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3366085

Closing Odds 2.67
AI Fair Odds 1.92
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Argentina W win · Ecuador W 0–1 Argentina W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 52.1%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ecuador W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ecuador W (1X2) by about 18.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ecuador W (1X2) 52.1 33.7 +18.4
Draw (1X2) 25.9 29.1 -3.3
Argentina W (1X2) 22.0 37.2 -15.1
Over 2.5 goals 56.1 40.3 +15.8
Under 2.5 goals 43.9 59.7 -15.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 52.1% on Ecuador W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.7%. The difference — about 18.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ecuador W (1X2) 2.67 2.67 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.09 3.09 0.0
Argentina W (1X2) 2.42 2.42 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.3 2.3 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.55 1.55 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: CONMEBOL Nations League Women
  • Fixture: Ecuador W vs Argentina W
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-09 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.1% · Draw 25.9% · Away 22.0%
  • xG (showing): Ecuador W 1.81 — Argentina W 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.93)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 56.1% · Implied: 41.1% · Probability edge: +15.0 pts · Est. EV: +31.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.8% · No 42.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Ecuador W & Argentina W!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
CONMEBOL Nations League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Colombia W 8 6 2 0 20
2 Argentina W 8 5 3 0 18
3 Venezuela W 8 3 3 2 12
4 Ecuador W 8 3 2 3 11
5 Peru W 8 3 2 3 11
6 Paraguay W 8 3 1 4 10
7 Chile W 8 3 1 4 10
8 Uruguay W 8 1 3 4 6
9 Bolivia W 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Venezuela W 8 19 6 +13 12
2 Argentina W 8 18 5 +13 18
3 Paraguay W 8 17 11 +6 10
4 Colombia W 8 16 7 +9 20
5 Peru W 8 12 15 -3 11
6 Chile W 8 11 9 +2 10
7 Ecuador W 8 8 6 +2 11
8 Uruguay W 8 7 11 -4 6
9 Bolivia W 8 2 40 -38 1