Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Nations League Women / Colombia W vs Uruguay W

Colombia W vs Uruguay W Statistics & Analysis

Colombia W Colombia W
Jun 05, 2026 - 23:00
1 1.91
0 1.02
xG Accuracy: 59%
Uruguay W Uruguay W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Colombia W Colombia W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1640763

Closing Odds 1.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Colombia W win · Colombia W 1–0 Uruguay W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Uruguay W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Uruguay W (1X2) by about 6.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Colombia W (1X2) 56.8 68.9 -12.1
Draw (1X2) 24.8 19.0 +5.8
Uruguay W (1X2) 18.4 12.1 +6.3
Over 2.5 goals 56.1 56.8 -0.7
Under 2.5 goals 43.9 43.2 +0.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 18.4% on Uruguay W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.1%. The difference — about 6.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Colombia W (1X2) 1.31 1.31 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.76 4.76 0.0
Uruguay W (1X2) 7.46 7.46 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.16 2.16 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: CONMEBOL Nations League Women
  • Fixture: Colombia W vs Uruguay W
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-05 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 56.8% · Draw 24.8% · Away 18.4%
  • xG (showing): Colombia W 1.91 — Uruguay W 1.02 (total xG ≈ 2.93)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 55.8% · Implied: 47.3% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +17.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.8% · No 44.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Nations League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Colombia W 8 6 2 0 20
2 Argentina W 8 5 3 0 18
3 Venezuela W 8 3 3 2 12
4 Ecuador W 8 3 2 3 11
5 Peru W 8 3 2 3 11
6 Paraguay W 8 3 1 4 10
7 Chile W 8 3 1 4 10
8 Uruguay W 8 1 3 4 6
9 Bolivia W 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Venezuela W 8 19 6 +13 12
2 Argentina W 8 18 5 +13 18
3 Paraguay W 8 17 11 +6 10
4 Colombia W 8 16 7 +9 20
5 Peru W 8 12 15 -3 11
6 Chile W 8 11 9 +2 10
7 Ecuador W 8 8 6 +2 11
8 Uruguay W 8 7 11 -4 6
9 Bolivia W 8 2 40 -38 1