Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Nations League Women / Bolivia W vs Paraguay W

Bolivia W vs Paraguay W Statistics & Analysis

Bolivia W Bolivia W
Jun 05, 2026 - 23:00
0 1.75
8 1.18
xG Accuracy: 10%
Paraguay W Paraguay W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bolivia W Paraguay W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 0-8 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1494626

Closing Odds 1.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Paraguay W win · Bolivia W 0–8 Paraguay W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Bolivia W (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bolivia W (1X2) by about 45.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bolivia W (1X2) 49.3 3.9 +45.4
Draw (1X2) 26.4 5.9 +20.5
Paraguay W (1X2) 24.3 90.2 -65.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.3% on Bolivia W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 3.9%. The difference — about 45.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bolivia W (1X2) 24.03 24.03 0.0
Draw (1X2) 15.68 15.68 0.0
Paraguay W (1X2) 1.03 1.03 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Bolivia W; market prices Paraguay W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Bolivia W 1.75 xG vs Paraguay W 1.18 → Bolivia W 49.3%
  • Market: Paraguay W ~3.9% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.9% · Over 2.5 56.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.7% · No 41.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Nations League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Colombia W 8 6 2 0 20
2 Argentina W 8 5 3 0 18
3 Venezuela W 8 3 3 2 12
4 Ecuador W 8 3 2 3 11
5 Peru W 8 3 2 3 11
6 Paraguay W 8 3 1 4 10
7 Chile W 8 3 1 4 10
8 Uruguay W 8 1 3 4 6
9 Bolivia W 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Venezuela W 8 19 6 +13 12
2 Argentina W 8 18 5 +13 18
3 Paraguay W 8 17 11 +6 10
4 Colombia W 8 16 7 +9 20
5 Peru W 8 12 15 -3 11
6 Chile W 8 11 9 +2 10
7 Ecuador W 8 8 6 +2 11
8 Uruguay W 8 7 11 -4 6
9 Bolivia W 8 2 40 -38 1