Washington Spirit W vs Pachuca W Statistics & Analysis

Washington Spirit W

May 21, 2026 - 02:30

1 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

Pachuca W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Washington Spirit W Washington Spirit W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-3, 1-2, 1-3, 2-4 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 15:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3442427

Closing Odds 1.62

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Washington Spirit W win · Washington Spirit W 1–0 Pachuca W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Pachuca W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Pachuca W (1X2) by about 11.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Washington Spirit W (1X2)	41.8	54.8	-13.0
Draw (1X2)	25.7	24.4	+1.2
Pachuca W (1X2)	32.6	20.8	+11.8
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	56.1	-5.5
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	43.9	+5.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Pachuca W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.8%. The difference — about 11.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Washington Spirit W (1X2)	1.62	1.62
Draw (1X2)	3.63	3.63
Pachuca W (1X2)	4.26	4.26
Over 2.5 goals	1.64	1.64
Under 2.5 goals	2.1	2.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: CONCACAF W Champions Cup
Fixture: Washington Spirit W vs Pachuca W
Kickoff: 2026-05-20 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Washington Spirit W 1.45 — Pachuca W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 49.4% · Implied: 43.9% · Probability edge: +5.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%
Correct score (top bin): 2-2 (6.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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