América W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Statistics & Analysis

América W

May 20, 2026 - 23:30

4 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 América W América W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 06:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2841820

Closing Odds 3.66

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result América W win · América W 4–1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices América W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on América W (1X2) by about 17.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
América W (1X2)	41.8	24.3	+17.5
Draw (1X2)	25.7	27.8	-2.1
NJ/NY Gotham FC W (1X2)	32.6	48.0	-15.4
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	46.8	+3.8
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	53.2	-3.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on América W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.3%. The difference — about 17.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
América W (1X2)	3.66	3.66
Draw (1X2)	3.2	3.2
NJ/NY Gotham FC W (1X2)	1.85	1.85
Over 2.5 goals	1.97	1.97
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	1.73

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: CONCACAF W Champions Cup
Fixture: América W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Kickoff: 2026-05-20 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): América W 1.45 — NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 27.7% · Over 2.5 72.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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