Statistics / Football / Poland. Central Youth League / Górnik Zabrze U19 vs Lech Poznań U19

Górnik Zabrze U19 vs Lech Poznań U19 Statistics & Analysis

Górnik Zabrze U19 Górnik Zabrze U19
May 31, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
Lech Poznań U19 Lech Poznań U19
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Górnik Zabrze U19 Górnik Zabrze U19 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3528208

Closing Odds 2.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Górnik Zabrze U19 win · Górnik Zabrze U19 4–2 Lech Poznań U19
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Górnik Zabrze U19 (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Górnik Zabrze U19 (1X2) 41.8 40.0 +1.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 24.0 +1.7
Lech Poznań U19 (1X2) 32.6 36.0 -3.4
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 64.5 -13.9
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 35.5 +13.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.5%. The difference — about 13.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Górnik Zabrze U19 (1X2) 2.25 2.25 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Lech Poznań U19 (1X2) 2.5 2.5 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.44 1.44 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.62 2.62 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Central Youth League
  • Fixture: Górnik Zabrze U19 vs Lech Poznań U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Górnik Zabrze U19 1.45 — Lech Poznań U19 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 31.1% · Probability edge: +18.3 pts · Est. EV: +60.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 77.3% · No 22.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (7.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Central Youth League Central Youth League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Legia Warszawa U19 30 21 4 5 67
2 Górnik Zabrze U19 30 18 5 7 59
3 Lech Poznań U19 30 17 6 7 57
4 Miedź Legnica U19 30 16 6 8 54
5 Polonia Warszawa U19 30 15 6 9 51
6 Zagłębie Lubin U19 30 16 3 11 51
7 Escola Varsovia U19 30 14 6 10 48
8 Śląsk Wrocław U19 30 11 9 10 42
9 Wisła Kraków U19 30 13 2 15 41
10 Stal Rzeszów U19 30 11 6 13 39
11 Jagiellonia U19 30 11 4 15 37
12 Arkonia U19 30 9 7 14 34
13 Znicz Pruszków U19 30 9 5 16 32
14 Lechia Gdańsk U19 30 7 4 19 25
15 Resovia U19 30 5 9 16 24
16 Odra Opole U19 30 5 2 23 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa U19 30 86 39 +47 67
2 Lech Poznań U19 30 74 51 +23 57
3 Górnik Zabrze U19 30 68 47 +21 59
4 Escola Varsovia U19 30 66 61 +5 48
5 Jagiellonia U19 30 62 62 0 37
6 Miedź Legnica U19 30 61 43 +18 54
7 Zagłębie Lubin U19 30 55 48 +7 51
8 Śląsk Wrocław U19 30 55 54 +1 42
9 Polonia Warszawa U19 30 54 37 +17 51
10 Wisła Kraków U19 30 52 58 -6 41
11 Lechia Gdańsk U19 30 50 68 -18 25
12 Stal Rzeszów U19 30 40 45 -5 39
13 Arkonia U19 30 40 50 -10 34
14 Znicz Pruszków U19 30 34 48 -14 32
15 Odra Opole U19 30 31 84 -53 17
16 Resovia U19 30 27 60 -33 24
Central Youth League Poland. Central Youth League Predictions