Ternana W vs AC Milan W Statistics & Analysis

Ternana W

May 17, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

AC Milan W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Ternana W Ternana W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1631441

Closing Odds 1.4

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ternana W win · Ternana W 1–0 AC Milan W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ternana W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ternana W (1X2) by about 26.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ternana W (1X2)	41.8	14.9	+26.9
Draw (1X2)	25.7	19.8	+5.9
AC Milan W (1X2)	32.6	65.4	-32.8
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	57.0	-6.4
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	43.0	+6.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Ternana W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.9%. The difference — about 26.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ternana W (1X2)	6.15	6.15
Draw (1X2)	4.63	4.63
AC Milan W (1X2)	1.4	1.4
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	2.19	2.19

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Ternana W; market prices AC Milan W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Ternana W 1.45 xG vs AC Milan W 1.25 → Ternana W 41.8%
Market: AC Milan W ~14.9% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 48.1% · Over 2.5 51.9%); BTTS No (Yes 34.9% · No 65.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Roma W	22	17	4	1	55
2	Inter Milano W	22	13	5	4	44
3	Juventus W	22	11	6	5	39
4	Fiorentina W	22	10	6	6	36
5	Lazio W	22	10	3	9	33
6	Napoli W	22	8	8	6	32
7	AC Milan W	22	9	5	8	32
8	Como W	22	8	6	8	30
9	Sassuolo W	22	4	6	12	18
10	Ternana W	22	4	5	13	17
11	Parma W	22	2	10	10	16
12	Genoa W	22	2	4	16	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Inter Milano W	22	49	26	+23	44
2	Roma W	22	44	19	+25	55
3	Juventus W	22	33	19	+14	39
4	Fiorentina W	22	33	30	+3	36
5	AC Milan W	22	31	26	+5	32
6	Lazio W	22	31	30	+1	33
7	Napoli W	22	30	25	+5	32
8	Como W	22	24	22	+2	30
9	Ternana W	22	19	40	-21	17
10	Genoa W	22	18	43	-25	10
11	Sassuolo W	22	17	34	-17	18
12	Parma W	22	16	31	-15	16