Genoa W vs Fiorentina W Statistics & Analysis

Genoa W

May 09, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 53%

Fiorentina W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Genoa W Fiorentina W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 11:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1591893

Closing Odds 1.58

AI Fair Odds 2.39

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Fiorentina W win · Genoa W 2–3 Fiorentina W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 41.8%
Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Genoa W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Genoa W (1X2) by about 22.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Genoa W (1X2)	41.8	19.0	+22.7
Draw (1X2)	25.7	22.3	+3.4
Fiorentina W (1X2)	32.6	58.7	-26.1
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	55.1	-4.5
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	44.9	+4.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Genoa W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.0%. The difference — about 22.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Genoa W (1X2)	4.87	4.87
Draw (1X2)	4.16	4.16
Fiorentina W (1X2)	1.58	1.58
Over 2.5 goals	1.7	1.7
Under 2.5 goals	2.09	2.09

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie A Women
Fixture: Genoa W vs Fiorentina W
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Genoa W 1.45 — Fiorentina W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Genoa W
Model: 41.8% · Implied: 19.0% · Probability edge: +22.7 pts · Est. EV: +7.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 48.8% · No 51.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Roma W	22	17	4	1	55
2	Inter Milano W	22	13	5	4	44
3	Juventus W	22	11	6	5	39
4	Fiorentina W	22	10	6	6	36
5	Lazio W	22	10	3	9	33
6	Napoli W	22	8	8	6	32
7	AC Milan W	22	9	5	8	32
8	Como W	22	8	6	8	30
9	Sassuolo W	22	4	6	12	18
10	Ternana W	22	4	5	13	17
11	Parma W	22	2	10	10	16
12	Genoa W	22	2	4	16	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Inter Milano W	22	49	26	+23	44
2	Roma W	22	44	19	+25	55
3	Juventus W	22	33	19	+14	39
4	Fiorentina W	22	33	30	+3	36
5	AC Milan W	22	31	26	+5	32
6	Lazio W	22	31	30	+1	33
7	Napoli W	22	30	25	+5	32
8	Como W	22	24	22	+2	30
9	Ternana W	22	19	40	-21	17
10	Genoa W	22	18	43	-25	10
11	Sassuolo W	22	17	34	-17	18
12	Parma W	22	16	31	-15	16