AC Milan W vs Parma W Statistics & Analysis

AC Milan W

May 10, 2026 - 10:30

3 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Parma W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 AC Milan W AC Milan W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 23:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1518465

Closing Odds 1.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result AC Milan W win · AC Milan W 3–1 Parma W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Parma W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Parma W (1X2) by about 14.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
AC Milan W (1X2)	41.8	57.9	-16.2
Draw (1X2)	25.7	23.6	+2.1
Parma W (1X2)	32.6	18.5	+14.1
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	50.5	+0.1
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	49.5	-0.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Parma W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.5%. The difference — about 14.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
AC Milan W (1X2)	1.6	1.6
Draw (1X2)	3.93	3.93
Parma W (1X2)	5.01	5.01
Over 2.5 goals	1.89	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	1.93	1.93

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie A Women
Fixture: AC Milan W vs Parma W
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): AC Milan W 1.45 — Parma W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 59.6% · Over 2.5 40.4%); BTTS No (Yes 29.2% · No 70.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 29.2% · No 70.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Roma W	22	17	4	1	55
2	Inter Milano W	22	13	5	4	44
3	Juventus W	22	11	6	5	39
4	Fiorentina W	22	10	6	6	36
5	Lazio W	22	10	3	9	33
6	Napoli W	22	8	8	6	32
7	AC Milan W	22	9	5	8	32
8	Como W	22	8	6	8	30
9	Sassuolo W	22	4	6	12	18
10	Ternana W	22	4	5	13	17
11	Parma W	22	2	10	10	16
12	Genoa W	22	2	4	16	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Inter Milano W	22	49	26	+23	44
2	Roma W	22	44	19	+25	55
3	Juventus W	22	33	19	+14	39
4	Fiorentina W	22	33	30	+3	36
5	AC Milan W	22	31	26	+5	32
6	Lazio W	22	31	30	+1	33
7	Napoli W	22	30	25	+5	32
8	Como W	22	24	22	+2	30
9	Ternana W	22	19	40	-21	17
10	Genoa W	22	18	43	-25	10
11	Sassuolo W	22	17	34	-17	18
12	Parma W	22	16	31	-15	16