Statistics / Football / Portugal. 1a Divisão - Women / Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes W

Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes W Statistics & Analysis

Sporting Braga Sporting Braga
May 10, 2026 - 13:45
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Vitoria Guimaraes W Vitoria Guimaraes W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Sporting Braga ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 00:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1779421

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sporting Braga win · Sporting Braga 2–0 Vitoria Guimaraes W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1a Divisão - Women
  • Fixture: Braga W vs Vitoria Guimaraes W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Braga W 1.45 — Vitoria Guimaraes W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 58.3% · Over 2.5 41.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.1% · No 41.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.1% · No 41.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.0%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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1a Divisão - Women 1a Divisão - Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SL Benfica 18 15 3 0 48
2 Sporting CP W 18 10 5 3 35
3 Torreense W 18 10 2 6 32
4 Valadares Gaia W 18 7 5 6 26
5 Sporting Braga 18 6 6 6 24
6 Vitoria Guimaraes W 18 4 9 5 21
7 Racing Power W 18 4 6 8 18
8 Rio Ave W 18 4 5 9 17
9 Marítimo W 18 4 2 12 14
10 Damaiense W 18 2 5 11 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SL Benfica 18 58 11 +47 48
2 Sporting CP W 18 35 16 +19 35
3 Torreense W 18 29 22 +7 32
4 Sporting Braga 18 26 21 +5 24
5 Valadares Gaia W 18 21 22 -1 26
6 Marítimo W 18 19 40 -21 14
7 Damaiense W 18 17 51 -34 11
8 Vitoria Guimaraes W 18 16 23 -7 21
9 Racing Power W 18 16 23 -7 18
10 Rio Ave W 18 10 18 -8 17