Šencur vs Izola Statistics & Analysis

May 23, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Šencur Izola ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 14:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2764610

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Izola win · Šencur 0–3 Izola
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. SNL - West
  • Fixture: Šencur vs Izola
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Šencur 1.45 — Izola 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 77.3% · No 22.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 77.3% · No 22.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. SNL - West 3. SNL - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dob 26 16 8 2 56
2 Jesenice 26 14 7 5 49
3 Izola 26 14 5 7 47
4 Vipava 26 13 4 9 43
5 Dren Vrhnika 26 12 6 8 42
6 Šobec Lesce 26 11 8 7 41
7 Škofja Loka 26 11 8 7 41
8 Svoboda 26 12 4 10 40
9 Rudar Trbovlje 26 9 7 10 34
10 Šencur 26 10 2 14 32
11 Žiri 26 8 4 14 28
12 Bistrc 26 7 4 15 25
13 Adria 26 6 4 16 22
14 Kranj 26 3 1 22 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dob 26 56 21 +35 56
2 Svoboda 26 56 36 +20 40
3 Rudar Trbovlje 26 52 54 -2 34
4 Jesenice 26 51 28 +23 49
5 Bistrc 26 50 71 -21 25
6 Izola 26 48 23 +25 47
7 Vipava 26 47 38 +9 43
8 Šencur 26 46 50 -4 32
9 Žiri 26 43 51 -8 28
10 Škofja Loka 26 39 34 +5 41
11 Dren Vrhnika 26 35 29 +6 42
12 Adria 26 34 60 -26 22
13 Šobec Lesce 26 30 26 +4 41
14 Kranj 26 22 88 -66 10