Statistics / Football / United-Arab-Emirates. Division 1 / Emirates Club vs Al Urooba

Emirates Club vs Al Urooba Statistics & Analysis

Emirates Club Emirates Club
May 10, 2026 - 14:05
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Al Urooba Al Urooba
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Emirates Club Al Urooba ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1807330

Closing Odds 3.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Al Urooba win · Emirates Club 0–2 Al Urooba
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Emirates Club (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Emirates Club (1X2) by about 15.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Emirates Club (1X2) 41.8 25.9 +15.9
Draw (1X2) 25.7 25.7 -0.1
Al Urooba (1X2) 32.6 48.4 -15.8
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 50.0 +0.6
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 50.0 -0.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Emirates Club (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.9%. The difference — about 15.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Emirates Club (1X2) 3.5 3.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.52 3.52 0.0
Al Urooba (1X2) 1.87 1.87 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Emirates Club vs Al Urooba
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:05:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Emirates Club 1.45 — Al Urooba 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 58.3% · Over 2.5 41.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hatta SC 28 18 5 5 59
2 Dubai United 28 17 7 4 58
3 Al Urooba 28 17 6 5 57
4 Dibba Al Hisn 28 17 5 6 56
5 Al Arabi 28 15 5 8 50
6 Al Thaid 28 13 9 6 48
7 Emirates Club 28 12 6 10 42
8 Al Fujairah SC 28 10 9 9 39
9 Al Hamriyah 28 10 8 10 38
10 Gulf United 28 7 4 17 25
11 Al Jazira Al Hamra 28 6 6 16 24
12 Ittifaq 28 7 3 18 24
13 City 28 6 5 17 23
14 Al Dahra 28 5 6 17 21
15 Masfut 28 5 6 17 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dibba Al Hisn 28 58 25 +33 56
2 Hatta SC 28 57 25 +32 59
3 Al Fujairah SC 28 46 47 -1 39
4 Dubai United 28 45 28 +17 58
5 Al Hamriyah 28 45 34 +11 38
6 Al Arabi 28 44 34 +10 50
7 Gulf United 28 39 52 -13 25
8 Al Urooba 28 38 17 +21 57
9 Emirates Club 28 38 39 -1 42
10 Al Thaid 28 37 30 +7 48
11 Ittifaq 28 37 57 -20 24
12 Al Jazira Al Hamra 28 35 51 -16 24
13 Al Dahra 28 30 56 -26 21
14 Masfut 28 30 58 -28 21
15 City 28 29 55 -26 23