Statistics / Football / Kenya. FKF Premier League / Bidco United vs Murang'a SEAL

Bidco United vs Murang'a SEAL Statistics & Analysis

Bidco United Bidco United
May 24, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Murang'a SEAL Murang'a SEAL
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bidco United Murang'a SEAL ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5155034

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Murang'a SEAL win · Bidco United 0–2 Murang'a SEAL
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: FKF Premier League
  • Fixture: Bidco United vs Murang'a SEAL
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bidco United 1.45 — Murang'a SEAL 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 65.0% · Over 2.5 35.0%); BTTS No (Yes 32.5% · No 67.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 32.5% · No 67.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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FKF Premier League FKF Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 GOR Mahia 34 20 9 5 69
2 AFC Leopards 34 19 7 8 64
3 Police 34 13 16 5 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 52
6 Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 48
8 Murang'a SEAL 34 13 8 13 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 41
15 Posta Rangers FC 34 9 13 12 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 GOR Mahia 34 50 22 +28 69
2 Homeboyz 34 47 37 +10 49
3 AFC Leopards 34 44 28 +16 64
4 Nairobi United 34 44 34 +10 53
5 Murang'a SEAL 34 42 41 +1 47
6 APS Bomet 34 37 35 +2 44
7 KCB 34 36 37 -1 48
8 Shabana 34 35 34 +1 52
9 Ulinzi Stars 34 34 37 -3 41
10 Police 34 31 21 +10 55
11 Mathare United 34 31 35 -4 41
12 Posta Rangers FC 34 31 40 -9 40
13 Mara Sugar 34 30 30 0 44
14 Kariobangi Sharks 34 30 33 -3 38
15 Tusker 34 27 32 -5 45
16 Bandari 34 26 26 0 44
17 Bidco United 34 19 40 -21 27
18 Sofapaka 34 19 51 -32 19
FKF Premier League Kenya. FKF Premier League Predictions