Kariobangi Sharks vs Nairobi United Statistics & Analysis

Kariobangi Sharks

May 10, 2026 - 11:00

2 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Nairobi United

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 draw Kariobangi Sharks ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1638733

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Kariobangi Sharks win · Kariobangi Sharks 2–0 Nairobi United

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: FKF Premier League
Fixture: Kariobangi Sharks vs Nairobi United
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Kariobangi Sharks 1.45 — Nairobi United 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 66.3% · Over 2.5 33.7%); BTTS No (Yes 41.9% · No 58.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 41.9% · No 58.1%
Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (15.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

FKF Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	34	20	9	5	69
2	AFC Leopards	34	19	7	8	64
3	Police	34	13	16	5	55
4	Nairobi United	34	14	11	9	53
5	Shabana	34	14	10	10	52
6	Homeboyz	34	12	13	9	49
7	KCB	34	13	9	12	48
8	Murang'a SEAL	34	13	8	13	47
9	Tusker	34	13	6	15	45
10	APS Bomet	34	11	11	12	44
11	Mara Sugar	34	10	14	10	44
12	Bandari	34	9	17	8	44
13	Ulinzi Stars	34	11	8	15	41
14	Mathare United	34	11	8	15	41
15	Posta Rangers FC	34	9	13	12	40
16	Kariobangi Sharks	34	8	14	12	38
17	Bidco United	34	5	12	17	27
18	Sofapaka	34	3	10	21	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	34	50	22	+28	69
2	Homeboyz	34	47	37	+10	49
3	AFC Leopards	34	44	28	+16	64
4	Nairobi United	34	44	34	+10	53
5	Murang'a SEAL	34	42	41	+1	47
6	APS Bomet	34	37	35	+2	44
7	KCB	34	36	37	-1	48
8	Shabana	34	35	34	+1	52
9	Ulinzi Stars	34	34	37	-3	41
10	Police	34	31	21	+10	55
11	Mathare United	34	31	35	-4	41
12	Posta Rangers FC	34	31	40	-9	40
13	Mara Sugar	34	30	30	0	44
14	Kariobangi Sharks	34	30	33	-3	38
15	Tusker	34	27	32	-5	45
16	Bandari	34	26	26	0	44
17	Bidco United	34	19	40	-21	27
18	Sofapaka	34	19	51	-32	19