Statistics / Football / Burkina-Faso. Ligue 1 / SONABEL vs ASFB

SONABEL vs ASFB Statistics & Analysis

SONABEL SONABEL
May 03, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
ASFB ASFB
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ASFB SONABEL ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1520124

Closing Odds 2.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result SONABEL win · SONABEL 2–0 ASFB
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices SONABEL (1X2), ASFB (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 21.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
SONABEL (1X2) 41.8 39.8 +2.0
Draw (1X2) 25.7 33.1 -7.5
ASFB (1X2) 32.6 27.1 +5.5
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 29.0 +21.6
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 71.0 -21.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.0%. The difference — about 21.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
SONABEL (1X2) 2.25 2.25 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.7 2.7 0.0
ASFB (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 3.25 3.25 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.33 1.33 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: ASFB vs SONABEL
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): ASFB 1.45 — SONABEL 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 50.6% · Implied: 29.2% · Probability edge: +21.4 pts · Est. EV: +64.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 28.7% · No 71.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (17.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rahimo 29 20 8 1 68
2 USFA 29 11 13 5 46
3 Sporting Cascades 29 10 13 6 43
4 Douanes 29 10 13 6 43
5 Majestic 29 11 10 8 43
6 ASFA-Yennenga 29 9 11 9 38
7 ASFB 29 9 10 10 37
8 Salitas 29 9 10 10 37
9 CFFEB 29 9 10 10 37
10 Vitesse 29 9 9 11 36
11 Réal du Faso 29 9 9 11 36
12 RCK 29 9 8 12 35
13 SONABEL 29 7 12 10 33
14 Etoile Filante 29 7 11 11 32
15 RC Bobo-Dioulasso 29 6 9 14 27
16 AJEB 29 5 8 16 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rahimo 29 47 15 +32 68
2 USFA 29 29 17 +12 46
3 Douanes 29 28 27 +1 43
4 Majestic 29 26 24 +2 43
5 Salitas 29 26 29 -3 37
6 Vitesse 29 25 25 0 36
7 ASFA-Yennenga 29 24 27 -3 38
8 RCK 29 24 27 -3 35
9 Sporting Cascades 29 23 14 +9 43
10 CFFEB 29 23 24 -1 37
11 ASFB 29 23 28 -5 37
12 SONABEL 29 23 28 -5 33
13 AJEB 29 23 35 -12 23
14 Etoile Filante 29 22 29 -7 32
15 Réal du Faso 29 21 23 -2 36
16 RC Bobo-Dioulasso 29 11 26 -15 27