SONABEL vs ASFB Statistics & Analysis

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

• League: Ligue 1
• Fixture: ASFB vs SONABEL
• Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
• xG (showing): ASFB 1.45 — SONABEL 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
• Model: 71.3% · Implied: 62.5% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +4.8%
• BTTS (model): Yes 28.7% · No 71.3%
• Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (17.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Top tracked +EV leg right now (hero card, non-primary grading): BTTS No.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 17, 2026 (UTC)