Heart of Lions vs Samartex Statistics & Analysis

Heart of Lions

May 10, 2026 - 15:00

3 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Samartex

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Heart of Lions Heart of Lions ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1550587

Closing Odds 1.38

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Heart of Lions win · Heart of Lions 3–0 Samartex

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Samartex (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Samartex (1X2) by about 21.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Heart of Lions (1X2)	41.8	65.1	-23.4
Draw (1X2)	25.7	23.6	+2.1
Samartex (1X2)	32.6	11.3	+21.3
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	36.7	+13.9
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	63.3	-13.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Samartex (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.3%. The difference — about 21.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Heart of Lions (1X2)	1.38	1.38
Draw (1X2)	3.81	3.81
Samartex (1X2)	7.98	7.98
Over 2.5 goals	2.48	2.48
Under 2.5 goals	1.44	1.44

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Heart of Lions vs Samartex
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Heart of Lions 1.45 — Samartex 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 78.3% · Over 2.5 21.7%); BTTS No (Yes 28.3% · No 71.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 28.3% · No 71.7%
Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (20.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Heart of Lions & Samartex!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Medeama	34	17	11	6	62
2	Bibiani Gold Stars	34	19	3	12	60
3	Hearts of Oak	34	13	15	6	54
4	Dreams	34	15	7	12	52
5	Samartex	34	13	11	10	50
6	Aduana Stars	34	13	11	10	50
7	Berekum Chelsea	34	14	8	12	50
8	Asante Kotoko	34	13	10	11	49
9	Karela	34	13	10	11	49
10	Bechem United	34	13	8	13	47
11	Vision	34	12	11	11	47
12	Basake Holy Stars	34	13	7	14	46
13	Young Apostles	34	12	9	13	45
14	Heart of Lions	34	12	9	13	45
15	Swedru All Blacks	34	12	9	13	45
16	Nations	34	12	8	14	44
17	Hohoe United	34	7	9	18	30
18	Eleven Wonders	34	3	4	27	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Medeama	34	52	28	+24	62
2	Dreams	34	49	32	+17	52
3	Bibiani Gold Stars	34	46	40	+6	60
4	Asante Kotoko	34	41	29	+12	49
5	Vision	34	38	34	+4	47
6	Bechem United	34	38	39	-1	47
7	Young Apostles	34	37	37	0	45
8	Heart of Lions	34	36	33	+3	45
9	Berekum Chelsea	34	35	33	+2	50
10	Swedru All Blacks	34	34	31	+3	45
11	Karela	34	32	33	-1	49
12	Nations	34	30	31	-1	44
13	Basake Holy Stars	34	30	39	-9	46
14	Aduana Stars	34	29	24	+5	50
15	Samartex	34	26	25	+1	50
16	Eleven Wonders	34	26	73	-47	13
17	Hearts of Oak	34	25	15	+10	54
18	Hohoe United	34	22	50	-28	30