Karela vs Young Apostles Statistics & Analysis

Karela

May 03, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 80%

Young Apostles

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Karela Karela ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1550758

Closing Odds 1.49

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Karela win · Karela 2–1 Young Apostles

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Young Apostles (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Young Apostles (1X2) by about 17.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Karela (1X2)	41.8	59.6	-17.8
Draw (1X2)	25.7	25.5	+0.2
Young Apostles (1X2)	32.6	14.9	+17.7
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	39.5	+11.1
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	60.5	-11.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Young Apostles (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.9%. The difference — about 17.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Karela (1X2)	1.49	1.49
Draw (1X2)	3.48	3.48
Young Apostles (1X2)	5.96	5.96
Over 2.5 goals	2.31	2.31
Under 2.5 goals	1.51	1.51

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Medeama	34	17	11	6	62
2	Bibiani Gold Stars	34	19	3	12	60
3	Hearts of Oak	34	13	15	6	54
4	Dreams	34	15	7	12	52
5	Samartex	34	13	11	10	50
6	Aduana Stars	34	13	11	10	50
7	Berekum Chelsea	34	14	8	12	50
8	Asante Kotoko	34	13	10	11	49
9	Karela	34	13	10	11	49
10	Bechem United	34	13	8	13	47
11	Vision	34	12	11	11	47
12	Basake Holy Stars	34	13	7	14	46
13	Young Apostles	34	12	9	13	45
14	Heart of Lions	34	12	9	13	45
15	Swedru All Blacks	34	12	9	13	45
16	Nations	34	12	8	14	44
17	Hohoe United	34	7	9	18	30
18	Eleven Wonders	34	3	4	27	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Medeama	34	52	28	+24	62
2	Dreams	34	49	32	+17	52
3	Bibiani Gold Stars	34	46	40	+6	60
4	Asante Kotoko	34	41	29	+12	49
5	Vision	34	38	34	+4	47
6	Bechem United	34	38	39	-1	47
7	Young Apostles	34	37	37	0	45
8	Heart of Lions	34	36	33	+3	45
9	Berekum Chelsea	34	35	33	+2	50
10	Swedru All Blacks	34	34	31	+3	45
11	Karela	34	32	33	-1	49
12	Nations	34	30	31	-1	44
13	Basake Holy Stars	34	30	39	-9	46
14	Aduana Stars	34	29	24	+5	50
15	Samartex	34	26	25	+1	50
16	Eleven Wonders	34	26	73	-47	13
17	Hearts of Oak	34	25	15	+10	54
18	Hohoe United	34	22	50	-28	30