Statistics / Football / Italy. Campionato Primavera - 2 / Palermo U19 vs Perugia U19

Palermo U19 vs Perugia U19 Statistics & Analysis

Palermo U19 Palermo U19
May 09, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Perugia U19 Perugia U19
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Palermo U19 Perugia U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1603549

Closing Odds 3.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Perugia U19 win · Palermo U19 0–1 Perugia U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Palermo U19 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Palermo U19 (1X2) by about 11.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Palermo U19 (1X2) 41.8 30.0 +11.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 26.9 -1.2
Perugia U19 (1X2) 32.6 43.1 -10.6
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 52.8 -2.2
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 47.2 +2.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Palermo U19 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.0%. The difference — about 11.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Palermo U19 (1X2) 3.01 3.05 -0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.35 3.4 -0.1
Perugia U19 (1X2) 2.1 2.12 +0.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.78 1.79 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.98 2.0 -0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Campionato Primavera - 2
  • Fixture: Palermo U19 vs Perugia U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Palermo U19 1.45 — Perugia U19 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 53.1% · Over 2.5 46.9%); BTTS No (Yes 47.4% · No 52.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.4% · No 52.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Campionato Primavera - 2 Campionato Primavera - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Como U19 30 18 7 5 61
2 Lecco U19 30 18 6 6 60
3 Modena U19 30 16 7 7 55
4 AlbinoLeffe U19 30 14 5 11 47
5 Reggiana U19 30 13 7 10 46
6 Pro Vercelli U19 30 14 4 12 46
7 Virtus Entella U19 30 10 13 7 43
8 Sampdoria U19 30 12 5 13 41
9 Vicenza U19 30 10 8 12 38
10 Sudtirol U19 30 9 10 11 37
11 Udinese U20 30 9 9 12 36
12 Cittadella U19 30 9 9 12 36
13 Renate U19 30 7 12 11 33
14 FeralpiSalò U19 30 9 3 18 30
15 Venezia U19 30 6 8 16 26
16 Padova U19 30 6 7 17 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lecco U19 30 65 50 +15 60
2 Como U19 30 58 31 +27 61
3 Reggiana U19 30 58 44 +14 46
4 Sampdoria U19 30 57 48 +9 41
5 AlbinoLeffe U19 30 57 58 -1 47
6 Modena U19 30 55 38 +17 55
7 Udinese U20 30 52 50 +2 36
8 Virtus Entella U19 30 47 38 +9 43
9 Vicenza U19 30 45 53 -8 38
10 Pro Vercelli U19 30 44 46 -2 46
11 Cittadella U19 30 42 49 -7 36
12 Sudtirol U19 30 35 35 0 37
13 Renate U19 30 34 44 -10 33
14 Padova U19 30 34 53 -19 25
15 Venezia U19 30 32 63 -31 26
16 FeralpiSalò U19 30 31 46 -15 30