Statistics / Football / Italy. Campionato Primavera - 2 / Pisa U19 vs Spezia U19

Pisa U19 vs Spezia U19 Statistics & Analysis

Pisa U19 Pisa U19
May 09, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Spezia U19 Spezia U19
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pisa U19 Pisa U19 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 10:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1859010

Closing Odds 1.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Pisa U19 win · Pisa U19 2–1 Spezia U19
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Spezia U19 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Pisa U19 (1X2) 41.8 49.7 -7.9
Draw (1X2) 25.7 23.9 +1.8
Spezia U19 (1X2) 32.6 26.4 +6.1
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 61.3 -10.7
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 38.7 +10.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.7%. The difference — about 10.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Pisa U19 (1X2) 1.83 1.84 +0.3
Draw (1X2) 3.76 3.83 -0.2
Spezia U19 (1X2) 3.41 3.46 -0.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.39 2.39 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Campionato Primavera - 2
  • Fixture: Pisa U19 vs Spezia U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Pisa U19 1.45 — Spezia U19 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 40.0% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +18.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.9% · No 35.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Campionato Primavera - 2 Campionato Primavera - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Como U19 30 18 7 5 61
2 Lecco U19 30 18 6 6 60
3 Modena U19 30 16 7 7 55
4 AlbinoLeffe U19 30 14 5 11 47
5 Reggiana U19 30 13 7 10 46
6 Pro Vercelli U19 30 14 4 12 46
7 Virtus Entella U19 30 10 13 7 43
8 Sampdoria U19 30 12 5 13 41
9 Vicenza U19 30 10 8 12 38
10 Sudtirol U19 30 9 10 11 37
11 Udinese U20 30 9 9 12 36
12 Cittadella U19 30 9 9 12 36
13 Renate U19 30 7 12 11 33
14 FeralpiSalò U19 30 9 3 18 30
15 Venezia U19 30 6 8 16 26
16 Padova U19 30 6 7 17 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lecco U19 30 65 50 +15 60
2 Como U19 30 58 31 +27 61
3 Reggiana U19 30 58 44 +14 46
4 Sampdoria U19 30 57 48 +9 41
5 AlbinoLeffe U19 30 57 58 -1 47
6 Modena U19 30 55 38 +17 55
7 Udinese U20 30 52 50 +2 36
8 Virtus Entella U19 30 47 38 +9 43
9 Vicenza U19 30 45 53 -8 38
10 Pro Vercelli U19 30 44 46 -2 46
11 Cittadella U19 30 42 49 -7 36
12 Sudtirol U19 30 35 35 0 37
13 Renate U19 30 34 44 -10 33
14 Padova U19 30 34 53 -19 25
15 Venezia U19 30 32 63 -31 26
16 FeralpiSalò U19 30 31 46 -15 30