Statistics / Football / Italy. Campionato Primavera - 2 / Modena U19 vs Cittadella U19

Modena U19 vs Cittadella U19 Statistics & Analysis

Modena U19 Modena U19
May 09, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Cittadella U19 Cittadella U19
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Modena U19 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4455333

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Modena U19 1–1 Cittadella U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Cittadella U19 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Cittadella U19 (1X2) by about 12.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Modena U19 (1X2) 41.8 58.4 -16.6
Draw (1X2) 25.7 21.6 +4.1
Cittadella U19 (1X2) 32.6 20.1 +12.5
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 61.3 -10.7
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 38.7 +10.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Cittadella U19 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.1%. The difference — about 12.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Modena U19 (1X2) 1.55 1.55 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.19 4.19 0.0
Cittadella U19 (1X2) 4.51 4.51 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.39 2.39 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Campionato Primavera - 2
  • Fixture: Modena U19 vs Cittadella U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Modena U19 1.45 — Cittadella U19 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.0% · Over 2.5 61.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.2% · No 39.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.2% · No 39.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Campionato Primavera - 2 Campionato Primavera - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Como U19 30 18 7 5 61
2 Lecco U19 30 18 6 6 60
3 Modena U19 30 16 7 7 55
4 AlbinoLeffe U19 30 14 5 11 47
5 Reggiana U19 30 13 7 10 46
6 Pro Vercelli U19 30 14 4 12 46
7 Virtus Entella U19 30 10 13 7 43
8 Sampdoria U19 30 12 5 13 41
9 Vicenza U19 30 10 8 12 38
10 Sudtirol U19 30 9 10 11 37
11 Udinese U20 30 9 9 12 36
12 Cittadella U19 30 9 9 12 36
13 Renate U19 30 7 12 11 33
14 FeralpiSalò U19 30 9 3 18 30
15 Venezia U19 30 6 8 16 26
16 Padova U19 30 6 7 17 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lecco U19 30 65 50 +15 60
2 Como U19 30 58 31 +27 61
3 Reggiana U19 30 58 44 +14 46
4 Sampdoria U19 30 57 48 +9 41
5 AlbinoLeffe U19 30 57 58 -1 47
6 Modena U19 30 55 38 +17 55
7 Udinese U20 30 52 50 +2 36
8 Virtus Entella U19 30 47 38 +9 43
9 Vicenza U19 30 45 53 -8 38
10 Pro Vercelli U19 30 44 46 -2 46
11 Cittadella U19 30 42 49 -7 36
12 Sudtirol U19 30 35 35 0 37
13 Renate U19 30 34 44 -10 33
14 Padova U19 30 34 53 -19 25
15 Venezia U19 30 32 63 -31 26
16 FeralpiSalò U19 30 31 46 -15 30