Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 / Aoiz vs Izarra

Aoiz vs Izarra Statistics & Analysis

Aoiz Aoiz
May 09, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Izarra Izarra
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Izarra ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 15:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4507957

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Izarra win · Aoiz 1–4 Izarra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15
  • Fixture: Aoiz vs Izarra
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Aoiz 1.45 — Izarra 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.4% · Over 2.5 50.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 63.3% · No 36.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.3% · No 36.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Peña Sport 34 24 5 5 77
2 Pamplona 34 22 8 4 74
3 Izarra 34 16 13 5 61
4 Subiza 34 15 9 10 54
5 San Juan 34 12 16 6 52
6 Huarte 34 15 2 17 47
7 Beti Kozkor 34 12 10 12 46
8 Avance Ezcabarte 34 12 9 13 45
9 Cortes 34 13 5 16 44
10 Cirbonero 34 11 10 13 43
11 Txantrea 34 12 7 15 43
12 Valle Egüés 34 11 9 14 42
13 Bidezarra 34 10 10 15 39
14 Aoiz 34 9 9 16 36
15 Beti Onak 34 9 9 16 36
16 Ardoi 34 8 12 14 36
17 Oberena 34 7 11 17 32
18 Atlético Artajonés 34 7 10 17 31
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pamplona 34 65 28 +37 74
2 Peña Sport 34 65 39 +26 77
3 Izarra 34 64 31 +33 61
4 Txantrea 34 52 67 -15 43
5 Beti Kozkor 34 51 44 +7 46
6 Huarte 34 49 47 +2 47
7 Valle Egüés 34 48 57 -9 42
8 Avance Ezcabarte 34 47 49 -2 45
9 Subiza 34 46 31 +15 54
10 Ardoi 34 46 56 -10 36
11 San Juan 34 43 28 +15 52
12 Aoiz 34 42 50 -8 36
13 Beti Onak 34 42 55 -13 36
14 Cirbonero 34 38 42 -4 43
15 Cortes 34 37 51 -14 44
16 Atlético Artajonés 34 36 61 -25 31
17 Bidezarra 34 34 40 -6 39
18 Oberena 34 32 61 -29 32
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Predictions