Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 / Diocesano vs Villafranca

Diocesano vs Villafranca Statistics & Analysis

Diocesano Diocesano
May 10, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 23%
Villafranca Villafranca
Premium betting site 1xbet: New users can use the promo code 1x_3342271 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Diocesano Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
  • Fixture: Diocesano vs Villafranca
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Diocesano 1.45 — Villafranca 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.4% · Over 2.5 45.6%); BTTS No (Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Best Bet + Reason

No bankroll-sized bet is implied here.

Treat this page as a read-only diagnostic: totals/BTTS structure can be informative even when the honest answer is to wait.

Correct-score markets remain high-variance even when one scoreline leads the table.

FAQ

When would a headline +EV return?

When odds move enough that implied probabilities drop relative to the same model snapshot, or when more book prices arrive so EV can be computed reliably — then re-run the pipeline.

Why is there no “best bet” on this page?

The headline engine uses a minimum +EV threshold (e.g. 2%) for a default pick. A line can still show tiny +EV that fails that bar — we still call it no default bet so readers do not over-size thin edges.

What do the grey “lean” labels mean then?

They summarise where the model tilts (e.g. Under 2.5 or BTTS No) without claiming a positive economic edge. Use them as context; size to zero unless you deliberately accept discretionary risk.

Should I still read the 1X2 card?

Yes — it shows whether any winner price clears value. Here it often explains why there is no headline: probabilities can be clustered while prices already embed that uncertainty.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

Get Premium Predictions for Diocesano & Villafranca!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 71
2 Badajoz 34 23 5 6 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 62
4 Azuaga 34 18 8 8 62
5 Jaraíz 34 16 11 7 59
6 Cabeza Buey 34 15 12 7 57
7 Villafranca 34 16 7 11 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 46
10 Jerez 34 8 17 9 41
11 Llerenense 34 11 8 15 41
12 Puebla Calzada 34 9 11 14 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 34
14 Gévora 34 8 9 17 33
15 Atlético Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 33
16 Diocesano 34 6 12 16 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 23
18 Calamonte 34 3 13 18 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Don Benito 34 70 22 +48 71
2 Badajoz 34 64 27 +37 71
3 Jerez 34 56 51 +5 41
4 Moralo 34 54 32 +22 62
5 Azuaga 34 53 31 +22 62
6 Jaraíz 34 53 33 +20 59
7 Cabeza Buey 34 45 29 +16 57
8 Villanovense 34 45 36 +9 53
9 Villafranca 34 45 40 +5 55
10 Montijo 34 43 42 +1 46
11 Llerenense 34 35 44 -9 41
12 Puebla Calzada 34 35 48 -13 38
13 Diocesano 34 33 63 -30 30
14 Gévora 34 32 53 -21 33
15 Santa Amalia 34 30 52 -22 34
16 Atlético Pueblonuevo 34 29 55 -26 33
17 Calamonte 34 25 47 -22 22
18 Montehermoso 34 24 66 -42 23
Popular Leagues