Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 / Villanovense vs Jaraíz

Villanovense vs Jaraíz Statistics & Analysis

Villanovense Villanovense
May 10, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Jaraíz Jaraíz
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Villanovense Jaraíz ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7172949

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jaraíz win · Villanovense 0–1 Jaraíz
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
  • Fixture: Villanovense vs Jaraíz
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Villanovense 1.45 — Jaraíz 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 53.1% · Over 2.5 46.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 71
2 Badajoz 34 23 5 6 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 62
4 Azuaga 34 18 8 8 62
5 Jaraíz 34 16 11 7 59
6 Cabeza Buey 34 15 12 7 57
7 Villafranca 34 16 7 11 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 46
10 Jerez 34 8 17 9 41
11 Llerenense 34 11 8 15 41
12 Puebla Calzada 34 9 11 14 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 34
14 Gévora 34 8 9 17 33
15 Atlético Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 33
16 Diocesano 34 6 12 16 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 23
18 Calamonte 34 3 13 18 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Don Benito 34 70 22 +48 71
2 Badajoz 34 64 27 +37 71
3 Jerez 34 56 51 +5 41
4 Moralo 34 54 32 +22 62
5 Azuaga 34 53 31 +22 62
6 Jaraíz 34 53 33 +20 59
7 Cabeza Buey 34 45 29 +16 57
8 Villanovense 34 45 36 +9 53
9 Villafranca 34 45 40 +5 55
10 Montijo 34 43 42 +1 46
11 Llerenense 34 35 44 -9 41
12 Puebla Calzada 34 35 48 -13 38
13 Diocesano 34 33 63 -30 30
14 Gévora 34 32 53 -21 33
15 Santa Amalia 34 30 52 -22 34
16 Atlético Pueblonuevo 34 29 55 -26 33
17 Calamonte 34 25 47 -22 22
18 Montehermoso 34 24 66 -42 23
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Predictions